The competitive season for top draft prospects has wrapped up. A few players in the top 10 continued playing until the very end, leaving a strong impression on scouts and executives at the Memorial Cup.
Attention now shifts to the combine taking place this week in Buffalo, New York. Players will undergo physical testing and participate in a rigorous interview process with interested teams. The combine offers organizations a chance to ask unique questions, understand players` personalities, and in some cases, grasp the implications of injuries.
There is potential for movement on the draft board, as combine testing results can influence data model outputs. Furthermore, this initial ranking weights scouting as 40% of the evaluation. The final ranking, scheduled for publication on June 23, will incorporate varying degrees of scouting, projection analysis, off-ice assessments, and industry intelligence, which may lead to shifts in player positions.
This set of rankings includes five key components:
- The Rank: Accounts for attributed value based on projection, confidence in that projection, and scouting evaluation.
- The NHL Projection: Weights the projection formula at 70% and scouting at 30%. It represents the most probable career outcome for the player. The final ranking will also include the player`s potential NHL ceiling.
- The NHL Floor: Uses the same formula and represents the least favorable outcome that still has a greater than 10% probability of occurring. For some prospects, the floor might be outside the NHL, such as in the AHL or KHL.
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Projection Confidence: Based solely on the projection formula, consisting of two parts: confidence and volatility.
- Confidence: Categorized as High, Fair, Medium, or Low. This indicates the model`s certainty that the player will achieve the NHL projection for at least 200 NHL games. Confidence level impacts the player`s overall value and rank. High is above 80%, Fair is 60-79%, Medium is 35-59%, and Low is below 35%.
- Volatility: Categorized as Low, Slight, Medium, or High. Volatility reflects the potential range of outcomes for a player`s career. Low volatility means a smaller range of possibilities (e.g., a top-pair defenseman to a number one defenseman). High volatility indicates a wide range of potential outcomes, often with relatively balanced probabilities around the NHL projection. Factors like league quality, scoring changes after moving leagues, injuries, or significant performance swings can influence volatility. Many players with high volatility are considered “raw” in their development.
- Strengths: Lists each player`s most notable abilities.
The term `Boom or bust` is a broad descriptor related to confidence and volatility. It typically means a player will either achieve their NHL projection or is unlikely to play 200 NHL games. The distinction between a low-confidence/high-volatility projection and a boom-or-bust projection often comes down to factors like the impact of injuries, a small sample size making confident projection difficult, or the player coming from a league with a limited history of producing successful NHL players.
Another factor considered is the `Russian factor`, where skilled Russian prospects are statistically more likely to return to Russia if they do not reach their expected NHL potential.
Here is the ranking of the top 64 prospects according to this model:
1. Matthew Schaefer, D, Erie (OHL)
Country: Canada
NHL Projection: First-pair defenseman
NHL Floor: Top-pair defenseman
Projection Confidence: High confidence, low volatility
Strengths: Mobility, puck moving, creativity, rush activation
2. Michael Misa, F, Saginaw (OHL)
Country: Canada
NHL Projection: Elite first-line center
NHL Floor: Second-line winger
Projection Confidence: High confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Offensive instincts, explosiveness, transition offense, two-way play
3. James Hagens, F, Boston College (NCAA)
Country: USA
NHL Projection: First-line center
NHL Floor: Second-line center
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Transition play, speed, hockey sense, puck handling
4. Porter Martone, F, Brampton (OHL)
Country: Canada
NHL Projection: Second-line power forward
NHL Floor: Middle-six winger
Projection Confidence: High confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, scoring, hockey sense, size
5. Caleb Desnoyers, F, Moncton (QMJHL)
Country: Canada
NHL Projection: Top-six, two-way center
NHL Floor: Third-line checking center
Projection Confidence: High confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, quick hands, playmaking, efficient puck play
6. Anton Frondell, F, Djurgardens (Allsvenskan)
Country: Sweden
NHL Projection: Second-line center
NHL Floor: Third-line scoring winger
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Versatility, two-way play, elite release, forechecking
7. Roger McQueen, F, Brandon (WHL)
Country: Canada
NHL Projection: First-line scoring center
NHL Floor: Injury-shortened career
Projection Confidence: Low confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Speed, puck handling, quick release, size
8. Viktor Eklund, F, Djurgardens (Allsvenskan)
Country: Sweden
NHL Projection: Top-six scoring forward
NHL Floor: Middle-six scoring forward
Projection Confidence: High confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Motor, transition offense, two-way play, off-puck play, hard skill
9. Jake O`Brien, F, Brantford (OHL)
Country: Canada
NHL Projection: Top-six playmaking center
NHL Floor: Middle-six scoring winger
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, creativity, hockey sense
10. Jackson Smith, D, Tri-City (WHL)
Country: Canada
NHL Projection: Top-four defenseman
NHL Floor: Bottom-pair defenseman
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Physicality, transition defense, mobility, puck moving
11. Brady Martin, F, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)
Country: Canada
NHL Projection: Second-line scoring forward
NHL Floor: Bottom-six power forward
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Motor, wall play, physicality, hard skill, competitiveness
12. Radim Mrtka, D, Seattle (WHL)
Country: Czech Republic
NHL Projection: Top-four shutdown defenseman
NHL Floor: Bottom-pair transition defenseman
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Size, stick positioning and use, hockey sense
13. Carter Bear, F, Everett (WHL)
Country: Canada
NHL Projection: Second-line versatile forward
NHL Floor: Third-line checker
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, versatility, two-way play, motor
14. Justin Carbonneau, F, Blainville-Boisbriand (QMJHL)
Country: Canada
NHL Projection: Second-line scoring forward
NHL Floor: Middle-six forward
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Powerful stride, playmaking, puck handling
15. Logan Hensler, D, Wisconsin (NCAA)
Country: USA
NHL Projection: Second-pair transition defenseman
NHL Floor: Bottom-pair defenseman
Projection Confidence: High confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Gap control, mobility, transition play
16. Lynden Lakovic, F, Moose Jaw (WHL)
Country: Canada
NHL Projection: Middle-six scoring winger
NHL Floor: Bottom-six forward
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Speed, finishing ability, hands, size
17. Kashawn Aitcheson, D, Barrie (OHL)
Country: Canada
NHL Projection: Second-pair defenseman
NHL Floor: Bottom-pair physical defenseman
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Physicality, competitiveness, aggression, strength
18. Braeden Cootes, F, Seattle (WHL)
Country: Canada
NHL Projection: Middle-six two-way center
NHL Floor: Bottom-six checking winger
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, speed, anticipation, forechecking
19. Cameron Schmidt, F, Vancouver (WHL)
Country: Canada
NHL Projection: Second-line scoring winger
NHL Floor: AHL player
Projection Confidence: Boom or bust
Strengths: Speed, puck handling, offensive instincts, finishing ability
20. Cole Reschny, F, Victoria (WHL)
Country: Canada
NHL Projection: Middle-six two-way center
NHL Floor: Bottom-six forward
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, anticipation, quick hands, competitiveness
21. Cameron Reid, D, Kitchener (OHL)
Country: Canada
NHL Projection: Top-four transition defenseman
NHL Floor: Bottom-pair defensive defenseman
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Skating, transition play, hockey sense
22. Cullen Potter, F, Arizona State (NCAA)
Country: USA
NHL Projection: Top-six forward
NHL Floor: Bottom-six checking winger
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Speed, agility, offensive play driving, elite release
23. Benjamin Kindel, F, Calgary (WHL)
Country: Canada
NHL Projection: Middle-six two-way winger
NHL Floor: Bottom-six checking winger
Projection Confidence: High confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Hockey sense, transition, two-way play
24. Malcolm Spence, F, Erie (OHL)
Country: Canada
NHL Projection: Third-line two-way winger
NHL Floor: Bottom-six winger
Projection Confidence: High confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: High-end motor, two-way play, tenacity
25. Joshua Ravensbergen, G, Prince George (WHL)
Country: Canada
NHL Projection: Number one starting goaltender
NHL Floor: 1B tandem goaltender
Projection Confidence: High confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Anticipation, crisp movements, competitiveness, lateral agility
26. Blake Fiddler, D, Edmonton (WHL)
Country: USA
NHL Projection: Second-pair defenseman
NHL Floor: Bottom-pair physical defenseman
Projection Confidence: High confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Transition defense, in-zone defensive play, size, mobility
27. Sascha Boumedienne, D, Boston University (NCAA)
Country: Sweden
NHL Projection: Second-pair two-way defenseman
NHL Floor: Bottom-pair offensive specialist
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Skating, stick play, transition play, slap shot
28. Jack Murtagh, F, USNTDP (USHL)
Country: USA
NHL Projection: Third-line power forward
NHL Floor: Fourth-line forward
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Motor, shooting, hard skill, straight-line speed
29. Jack Nesbitt, F, Windsor (OHL)
Country: Canada
NHL Projection: Middle-six two-way center
NHL Floor: Fourth-line defensive center
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Strength, size, competitiveness, two-way play
30. Bill Zonnon, F, Rouyn-Noranda (QMJHL)
Country: Canada
NHL Projection: Third-line two-way forward
NHL Floor: AHL player
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: High-end motor, raw playmaking, competitiveness, puck battles
31. William Moore, F, USNTDP (USHL)
Country: USA
NHL Projection: Third-line forward
NHL Floor: NHL depth player
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Puck protection, skating, offensive instincts, puck skill
32. Ryker Lee, F, Madison (USHL)
Country: USA
NHL Projection: Middle-six playmaker
NHL Floor: Bottom-six scoring depth
Projection Confidence: Boom or bust
Strengths: Hockey sense, creativity, puck handling, one-timer
33. Nathan Behm, F, Kamploops (WHL)
Country: Canada
NHL Projection: Middle-six scoring forward
NHL Floor: Bottom-six scoring depth
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, shooting, creativity
34. Milton Gastrin, F, Modo (J20 Nationell)
Country: Sweden
NHL Projection: Third-line two-way center
NHL Floor: Fourth-line center
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, low volatility
Strengths: Defensive play, two-way instincts, motor
35. Shane Vansaghi, F, Michigan State (NCAA)
Country: USA
NHL Projection: Third-line power forward
NHL Floor: Bottom-six checking forward
Projection Confidence: High confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Physicality, strength, competitiveness, puck skill
36. Jakob Ihs-Wozniak, F, Lulea (J20 Nationell)
Country: Sweden
NHL Projection: Middle-six scoring forward
NHL Floor: Third-line scoring depth
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, finishing ability, offensive instincts
37. Jack Ivankovic, G, Brampton (OHL)
Country: Canada
NHL Projection: Platoon starting goaltender
NHL Floor: High-end NHL backup
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Positioning, controlled movements, patience in save selection
38. Henry Brzustewicz, D, London (OHL)
Country: USA
NHL Projection: Number 4/5 transition defender
NHL Floor: AHL scoring defenseman
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Puck moving, gap control, creativity
39. Cole McKinney, F, USNTDP (USHL)
Country: USA
NHL Projection: Third-line, two-way center
NHL Floor: Fourth-line defensive center
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, penalty killing, competitiveness, finishing ability
40. Eric Nilson, F, Orebro (J20 Nationell)
Country: Sweden
NHL Projection: Bottom-six checking center
NHL Floor: AHL top-six center
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, forechecking, competitiveness, defensive instincts
41. Vaclav Nestrasil, F, Muskegon (USHL)
Country: Czech Republic
NHL Projection: Top-six power forward
NHL Floor: Fourth-line physical winger
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Size, motor, two-way play, puck skill
42. Benjamin Kevan, F, Des Moines (USHL)
Country: USA
NHL Projection: Middle-six two-way winger
NHL Floor: Bottom-six speedster
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Speed, puck handling, transition offense
43. Ivan Ryabkin, F, Muskegon (USHL)
Country: Russia
NHL Projection: Middle-six power forward
NHL Floor: AHL player
Projection Confidence: Boom or bust
Strengths: Quick release, creativity, physicality
44. Daniil Prokhorov, F, St. Petersburg (MHL)
Country: Russia
NHL Projection: Middle-six power forward
NHL Floor: KHL player
Projection Confidence: Boom or bust
Strengths: Size, strength, physicality, heavy shot
45. Carter Amico, D, USNTDP (USHL)
Country: USA
NHL Projection: Number 4/5 transition defenseman
NHL Floor: Number 7 defenseman
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Mobility, transition defense, physicality, size
46. Max Psenicka, D, Portland (WHL)
Country: Czech Republic
NHL Projection: Number 4/5 two-way defenseman
NHL Floor: Number 7 defenseman
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Instincts, mobility, gap control, puck moving
47. Luca Romano, F, Kitchener (OHL)
Country: Canada
NHL Projection: Middle-six, two-way center
NHL Floor: Bottom-six checking speedster
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Speed, transition play, motor
48. Alexander Zharovsky, F, Ufa (MHL)
Country: Russia
NHL Projection: Middle-six scoring winger
NHL Floor: KHL player
Projection Confidence: Boom or bust
Strengths: Puck handling, instincts, creativity
49. Kurban Limatov, D, Moscow (MHL)
Country: Russia
NHL Projection: Second-pair, two-way defenseman
NHL Floor: KHL player
Projection Confidence: Boom or bust
Strengths: Skating, mobility, aggressiveness, physicality
50. Mason West, F, Edina (USHS)
Country: USA
NHL Projection: Middle-six physical forward
NHL Floor: Fourth-line physical forward
Projection Confidence: Low confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Strength, physicality, size, mobility
51. Kristian Epperson, F, Saginaw (OHL)
Country: USA
NHL Projection: Third-line scoring winger
NHL Floor: AHL top-six forward
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, playmaking, hockey sense
52. Matthew Gard, F, Red Deer (WHL)
Country: Canada
NHL Projection: Bottom-six checking center
NHL Floor: Fourth-line physical center
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, low volatility
Strengths: Strength, size, defensive play, motor
53. William Horcoff, F, Michigan (NCAA)
Country: USA
NHL Projection: Third-line two-way center
NHL Floor: Fourth-line physical presence
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Defensive play, strength, size, wall play
54. Jacob Rombach, D, Lincoln (USHL)
Country: USA
NHL Projection: Second-pair shutdown defenseman
NHL Floor: Bottom-pair physical defenseman
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Defensive play, puck retrievals, motor
55. Peyton Kettles, D, Swift Current (WHL)
Country: Canada
NHL Projection: Number 4/5 shutdown defenseman
NHL Floor: Bottom-pair defenseman
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, low volatility
Strengths: Defensive play, size, physicality
56. Hayden Paupanekis, F, Kelowna (WHL)
Country: Canada
NHL Projection: Bottom-six defensive center
NHL Floor: Fourth-line center
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Competitiveness, size, defensive play
57. David Bedkowski, D, Owen Sound (OHL)
Country: Canada
NHL Projection: Bottom-pair shutdown defenseman
NHL Floor: Number 7 physical defenseman
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Physicality, size, strong stick, penalty killing
58. Ethan Czata, F, Niagara (OHL)
Country: Canada
NHL Projection: Bottom-six checking center
NHL Floor: AHL depth
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Penalty killing, physicality, hard skill
59. Haoxi `Simon` Wang, D, Oshawa (OHL)
Country: China
NHL Projection: Second-pair two-way defenseman
NHL Floor: AHL player
Projection Confidence: Low confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Skating, mobility, size, transition defense
60. Theo Stockselius, F, Djurgardens (J20 Nationell)
Country: Sweden
NHL Projection: Third-line two-way forward
NHL Floor: AHL depth
Projection Confidence: Low confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Hockey sense, hard skill, playmaking
61. Eddie Genborg, F, Linkoping (SHL)
Country: Sweden
NHL Projection: Bottom-six checking winger
NHL Floor: Fourth-line physical winger
Projection Confidence: Medium confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Physicality, two-way play, motor
62. Charlie Trethewey, D, USNTDP (USHL)
Country: USA
NHL Projection: Number 4/5 two-way defenseman
NHL Floor: Bottom-pair defenseman
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Defensive play, physicality, heavy shot, skating
63. Alexei Medvedev, G, London (OHL)
Country: Russia
NHL Projection: 1B NHL goaltender
NHL Floor: Reliable NHL backup
Projection Confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Positioning, competitiveness, anticipation, athleticism
64. L.J. Mooney, F, USNTDP (USA)
Country: USA
NHL Projection: Middle-six two-way scoring depth
NHL Floor: AHL top-six scoring forward
Projection Confidence: Boom or bust
Strengths: Speed, puck handling, motor
Gareth Tenby 
Duncan Priestley