Analyzing NHL Offseason Value Changes

In the NHL, change is constant, yet sometimes the outcome remains the same. While many teams saw their fortunes shift in 2024-25, the ultimate result – the Florida Panthers defeating the Edmonton Oilers for the Stanley Cup – mirrored the previous year.

However, this doesn`t mean the league stands still. With numerous trades and free agent signings, the rosters heading into training camp in a couple of months will look considerably different from those that finished the season.

Since the season concluded, the Vegas Golden Knights made the most significant offseason acquisition, while the San Jose Sharks and Anaheim Ducks continued their ascent from the bottom. The Dallas Stars, Edmonton Oilers, and Toronto Maple Leafs now face varying levels of urgency in re-tooling their rosters. Meanwhile, the Detroit Red Wings and Montreal Canadiens have become more intriguing teams. Even the two-time champion Panthers had to adjust their roster despite their efforts to retain their core players.

To evaluate all these roster changes, we can use a method similar to last season, tracking the net impact of each team`s player transactions. Specifically, we`ll use each incoming or outgoing player`s `established level` of performance, calculated as a three-year weighted average of their Goals Above Replacement (GAR). This approach smooths out outlier seasons and gives more weight to recent performance, offering a better prediction of future impact compared to single-year statistics.

Regardless of how it`s measured, there were fewer high-profile players moving this summer compared to last. But among those who did switch teams, which newcomers significantly boosted their teams? And which teams might come to regret their offseason activity (or lack thereof)?

Let`s examine the teams at both ends of the spectrum and conclude with a full ranking of all 32 teams.

Six Teams That Gained the Most Value

1. San Jose Sharks (+22.0 net 3-year weighted GAR)

2024-25 team GAR ranks: No. 32 offense | No. 32 defense | No. 30 goalies | No. 32 overall
Weighted 3Y GAR added: 21.1 | Weighted 3Y GAR lost: -0.9

Top additions by 3Y GAR: D Dmitry Orlov (9.3); C Adam Gaudette (4.7); D Nick Leddy (3.3); G Alex Nedeljkovic (2.8); D John Klingberg (1.0)
Top losses by 3Y GAR: F Walker Duehr (0.1); C Thomas Bordeleau (0.0)

The Sharks still have a long journey ahead after finishing as the league`s worst team by goal differential for the second straight season. However, following an offseason of solid additions and no significant departures, they are positioned to continue their gradual rebuild towards competitiveness. They`ve added several veteran players on defense, in goal, and up the middle to what was already the NHL`s fourth-youngest roster.

According to GAR, the best addition was Orlov, who, as usual, put up strong numbers from Carolina`s blue line last season. Klingberg, however, could be San Jose`s most impactful acquisition if he can rediscover the power-play quarterback form he showed years ago in Dallas, which has been missing lately. Regardless, this offseason focused on establishing structure without compromising the future development of players like Macklin Celebrini.

2. Anaheim Ducks (+17.7 net 3-year weighted GAR)

2024-25 team GAR ranks: No. 30 offense | No. 29 defense | No. 5 goalies | No. 26 overall
Weighted 3Y GAR added: 25.6 | Weighted 3Y GAR lost: 7.9

Top additions by 3Y GAR: LW Chris Kreider (10.2); C Mikael Granlund (6.9); G Petr Mrazek (5.4); C Ryan Poehling (3.1)
Top losses by 3Y GAR: G John Gibson (7.8); C Trevor Zegras (2.4)

Losing goaltender Gibson is tough after years of him facing a remarkably high volume of shots behind the Ducks` often porous defense. But the emergence of Lukáš Dostál as Anaheim`s potential future No. 1 goalie lessens the impact of that loss, especially with Mrazek now providing competent backup support. Similarly, despite his skill with the puck, Zegras wasn`t consistently healthy or productive enough to be severely missed. Instead, this analysis highlights the value in adding Kreider and Granlund to a forward group that ranked 31st in GAR last season, providing support for talented young players like Jackson LaCombe, Mason McTavish, Cutter Gauthier, and Leo Carlsson.

The significant factor is new coach Joel Quenneville, whose successful coaching record in Chicago is marred by his involvement in the Blackhawks` handling of sexual assault allegations, making him a highly controversial hire this offseason. However, he will have a more talented roster to work with in 2025-26 than previous Ducks coaches have had in years.

3. Seattle Kraken (+13.1 net 3-year weighted GAR)

2024-25 team GAR ranks: No. 16 offense | No. 23 defense | No. 21 goalies | No. 20 overall
Weighted 3Y GAR added: 18.9 | Weighted 3Y GAR lost: 5.8

Top additions by 3Y GAR: F Mason Marchment (9.6); D Ryan Lindgren (5.0); C Frederick Gaudreau (3.6)
Top losses by 3Y GAR: LW Andre Burakovsky (3.2); C Michael Eyssimont (2.2)

After their defense declined – despite their offense improving – in 2024-25, the Kraken`s most significant offseason addition addresses both ends of the ice: Mason Marchment. He`s a physical winger who has scored over 20 goals in consecutive seasons while also being rated as one of the league`s better defensive forwards.

Adding extra depth (including Stanley Cup-winning goalie Matt Murray, who provides another option in net) and experiencing minimal subtractions (as Burakovsky never quite regained his form from his time in Colorado), the Kraken had a solid offseason of progress under their new leadership team of coach Lane Lambert and general manager Jason Botterill.

4. Montreal Canadiens (+11.1 net 3-year weighted GAR)

2024-25 team GAR ranks: No. 17 offense | No. 22 defense | No. 19 goalies | No. 21 overall
Weighted 3Y GAR added: 18.2 | Weighted 3Y GAR lost: 7.1

Top additions by 3Y GAR: D Noah Dobson (10.7); C Zack Bolduc (6.2)
Top losses by 3Y GAR: RW Joel Armia (2.4); C Christian Dvorak (2.1); D David Savard (2.1); LW Emil Heineman (1.4)

The Canadiens were already one of the NHL`s most improved young teams last season, even making the playoffs for the first time since their improbable run to the Cup Final in 2021. Montreal carried that momentum into the summer with a June trade for Noah Dobson, securing one of the league`s top young defensemen. (Among defensemen aged 25 or younger last season, only Quinn Hughes, Evan Bouchard, and Rasmus Dahlin accumulated more GAR than Dobson since the 2021-22 season.)

Zack Bolduc, who had a breakout season with St. Louis, should not be overlooked either. Montreal`s offseason losses were manageable. The Canadiens` future appears to be arriving sooner than anticipated, and this offseason only accelerated their timeline.

T-5. Vegas Golden Knights (+8.7 net 3-year weighted GAR)

2024-25 team GAR ranks: No. 5 offense | No. 2 defense | No. 14 goalies | No. 3 overall
Weighted 3Y GAR added: 19.9 | Weighted 3Y GAR lost: 11.2

Top additions by 3Y GAR: RW Mitch Marner (18.5); C Colton Sissons (1.4)
Top losses by 3Y GAR: C Nicolas Roy (5.2); LW Tanner Pearson (3.3); D Nicolas Hague (2.7)

The Golden Knights landed the biggest name of the summer by acquiring Mitch Marner in a sign-and-trade deal. His 102 points last season would have easily set a new single-season franchise record for Vegas. The cost was high – both financially (Marner`s new contract is for eight years and $96 million) and in terms of roster depth (with Roy going to Toronto).

However, Vegas was already ranked third in total GAR last season and ended up with a net gain in value this offseason. General Manager Kelly McCrimmon has never hesitated to make bold moves, and he has gone all-in for another Stanley Cup run with this core group led by Jack Eichel.

T-5. Nashville Predators (+8.7 net 3-year weighted GAR)

2024-25 team GAR ranks: No. 31 offense | No. 26 defense | No. 26 goalies | No. 30 overall
Weighted 3Y GAR added: 11.8 | Weighted 3Y GAR lost: 3.1

Top additions by 3Y GAR: D Nick Perbix (5.4); LW Erik Haula (3.8); D Nicolas Hague (2.7)
Top losses by 3Y GAR: C Colton Sissons (1.4); D Marc Del Gaizo (1.3)

If at first you don`t succeed, try again – and the Predators are back on our list of teams with the most net offseason gains, even after last season`s promising start dissolved into disaster. This time, their moves were less flashy – Perbix and Hague are reliable defensemen, not high-scoring forwards – but they should help reinforce a defense that dropped from 13th to 27th in goals allowed.

Much still depends on a positive turnaround from several slumping stars (Josi, Saros, Stamkos, Forsberg, Skjei, Marchessault, among others), but GM Barry Trotz has kept Nashville in a position to rebound without needing a full-scale rebuild.

Honorable Mention: Detroit Red Wings (added G John Gibson), New Jersey Devils (RW Evgenii Dadonov), Utah Mammoth (RW JJ Peterka, D Nate Schmidt), Boston Bruins (LW Viktor Arvidsson)

Six Teams That Lost the Most Value

32. Dallas Stars (-25.3 net 3-year weighted GAR)

2024-25 team GAR ranks: No. 3 offense | No. 12 defense | No. 4 goalies | No. 5 overall
Weighted 3Y GAR added: 0.8 | Weighted 3Y GAR lost: 26.1

Top additions by 3Y GAR: C Radek Faksa (0.8)
Top losses by 3Y GAR: F Mason Marchment (9.6); C Mikael Granlund (6.9); RW Evgenii Dadonov (5.3); D Cody Ceci (4.4)

In an offseason marked by significant instability – coach Peter DeBoer, who led the Stars to three consecutive Western Conference Finals appearances, was fired after failing to reach the Cup Final and replaced by former Stars coach Glen Gulutzan – Dallas`s net GAR situation is just another sign of upheaval.

Although the core players like Jake Oettinger, Jason Robertson, Mikko Rantanen, and others remain, the Stars significantly changed their supporting cast, losing more three-year GAR value than any other NHL team this summer. Team management clearly felt the previous group had plateaued. Only time will tell if this level of disruption helps the Stars overcome their challenges or hinders their performance.

31. Edmonton Oilers (-13.1 net 3-year weighted GAR)

2024-25 team GAR ranks: No. 11 offense | No. 9 defense | No. 20 goalies | No. 10 overall
Weighted 3Y GAR added: 5.5 | Weighted 3Y GAR lost: 18.6

Top additions by 3Y GAR: LW Andrew Mangiapane (5.2)
Top losses by 3Y GAR: RW Corey Perry (5.0); LW Viktor Arvidsson (4.9); LW Evander Kane (3.4); RW Connor Brown (3.4); D John Klingberg (1.0)

As mentioned earlier, Edmonton fell short for the second year in a row, losing to Florida in the Final – a disappointing conclusion to another strong season led by Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid. Through the trades and signings in late June and early July, the Oilers primarily lost players.

They did add Andrew Mangiapane – although his 35-goal breakout season in 2021-22 is now outside the window for our three-year GAR calculation – plus Curtis Lazar for added depth. However, the most significant decision for Edmonton might be one they didn`t make: sticking with goaltenders Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard, despite speculation that the Oilers would seek an upgrade after the duo posted a combined .866 save percentage in the Cup Final loss.

30. Toronto Maple Leafs (-12.3 net 3-year weighted GAR)

2024-25 team GAR ranks: No. 7 offense | No. 17 defense | No. 2 goalies | No. 8 overall
Weighted 3Y GAR added: 9.1 | Weighted 3Y GAR lost: 21.4

Top additions by 3Y GAR: C Nicolas Roy (5.2); LW Matias Maccelli (3.9)
Top losses by 3Y GAR: RW Mitch Marner (18.5); RW Pontus Holmberg (2.1)

While a continuation of the Marner-Leafs relationship wasn`t entirely ruled out leading into free agency – he had, after all, averaged a point per game in the playoffs – the talented winger ultimately signed in Vegas, taking a key piece of Toronto`s recent core with him. This departure placed the Maple Leafs prominently on our list of offseason losers, despite recouping some value in the Marner trade by acquiring Nicolas Roy, a capable two-way center.

Another trade with the Mammoth brought in Matias Maccelli, who could benefit from a change of scenery after a challenging first season in Utah. He is still under 25 and came close to scoring 20 goals and 60 points two seasons ago. The losses outweigh the additions, but Toronto still possesses significant top-end talent.

29. New York Rangers (-9.3 net 3-year weighted GAR)

2024-25 team GAR ranks: No. 12 offense | No. 24 defense | No. 10 goalies | No. 15 overall
Weighted 3Y GAR added: 11.3 | Weighted 3Y GAR lost: 20.7

Top additions by 3Y GAR: D Vladislav Gavrikov (8.4); RW Taylor Raddysh (1.6); D Scott Morrow (1.5)
Top losses by 3Y GAR: LW Chris Kreider (10.2); D K`Andre Miller (6.8); RW Arthur Kaliyev (1.9); D Zac Jones (1.3)

It has been a busy offseason for the Rangers so far. In addition to a coaching change (from Peter Laviolette to former Penguins coach Mike Sullivan), New York added a fair amount of GAR talent but lost even more, resulting in a net loss according to our calculation. The biggest losses were Kreider and Miller, who both started their careers with the Rangers and combined for 18 seasons on Broadway. However, a couple of disappointing seasons made each expendable.

The main defensive addition is Vladislav Gavrikov, a solid defender coming off a career-best season (10.5 GAR) with the Kings. The Rangers definitely needed help on defense. The rest will rely on internal improvements – primarily, whether New York`s existing stars can return to their performance levels prior to 2025.

T-27. Winnipeg Jets (-7.4 net 3-year weighted GAR)

2024-25 team GAR ranks: No. 3 offense | No. 3 defense | No. 1 goalies | No. 1 overall
Weighted 3Y GAR added: 10.4 | Weighted 3Y GAR lost: 17.8

Top additions by 3Y GAR: RW Gustav Nyquist (4.7); LW Tanner Pearson (3.3); LW Cole Koepke (1.4)
Top losses by 3Y GAR: LW Nikolaj Ehlers (12.3); C Mason Appleton (3.4); LW Brandon Tanev (1.8)

There are – or at least, there should be – significant questions about how much the Jets will regress to the mean in 2025-26, after a remarkable regular season where they won the Presidents` Trophy and set new franchise records for wins and points.

Many concerns will focus on the team`s offense, which jumped to third in the league in goals per game after not ranking higher than 12th in the previous five seasons. The offseason loss of Nikolaj Ehlers, who will take his 24 goals and 63 points to the Hurricanes, won`t help either. While Winnipeg tried to re-tool their forwards by adding Nyquist and others, the loss of established GAR value is one indicator pointing towards the Jets potentially coming back down to earth next season.

T-27. Colorado Avalanche (-7.4 net 3-year weighted GAR)

2024-25 team GAR ranks: No. 6 offense | No. 7 defense | No. 18 goalies | No. 7 overall
Weighted 3Y GAR added: 13.2 | Weighted 3Y GAR lost: 20.6

Top additions by 3Y GAR: D Brent Burns (13.0)
Top losses by 3Y GAR: C Charlie Coyle (6.5); LW Jonathan Drouin (6.4); D Ryan Lindgren (5.0); LW Miles Wood (1.6); D Calle Rosén (1.1)

Due to cost-cutting reasons, Colorado had to allow the trade and free agent markets to further deplete their supporting cast, which was already thinned out since the team`s 2022 Cup victory. (That championship team had six players with 15-plus GAR and nine in double figures; by 2024-25, those numbers were down to three and six, respectively.)

The Avalanche did acquire an interesting veteran in Brent Burns, who still offers value even though he is past his prime. With an elite core still intact – led by Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon, Devon Toews, and newcomer Brock Nelson – Colorado`s potential remains high. However, this offseason clearly represented another period of roster depletion in Denver.

(Dis)honorable mention: Carolina Hurricanes (lost Ds Brent Burns and Dmitry Orlov), Vancouver Canucks (C Pius Suter), Minnesota Wild (RW Gustav Nyquist)

All-32 Team NHL Rankings

2025-26 NHL Teams` Overall Ranking by Net GAR Added/Lost