Sports events constantly shape the betting landscape. Injuries, record-breaking achievements, and other major news significantly influence the sports betting world. This report, compiled with insights from experts, explores the most impactful sports betting narratives.
October 28: Ovechkin`s 900-Goal Pursuit Intensifies Betting Interest
Betting interest in Alex Ovechkin and the Capitals is intensifying as he approaches 900 goals. Following his record-breaking pursuit of Wayne Gretzky`s all-time goals last season – a major betting draw – Ovechkin is now poised to become the first NHL player to reach 900 career goals. With 899 goals, he could achieve this milestone as early as Tuesday during the `Frozen Frenzy` event against the Dallas Stars.
While not as fervent as his chase for Gretzky`s record, interest in Ovechkin remains significant; DraftKings ranks him as the 10th most-bet NHL player for prop bets this season. Karry Shreeve from Caesars Sportsbook noted that despite a slow start, betting action has increased, anticipating a surge during his 1,500th game and the upcoming Frozen Frenzy.
“It was a slower start to his season, but the interest has ramped up, and with tomorrow`s Frozen Frenzy it`s a great time for him to get there [to 900 goals]. There was heightened interest on and during his 1,500th game, and I expect the same for tomorrow.”
Karry Shreeve, Head of Hockey, Caesars Sportsbook
The Capitals` Stanley Cup odds have also seen renewed interest, with Caesars shortening their odds to 15-1, while other sportsbooks offer longer odds (e.g., 30-1 at BetMGM and FanDuel). DraftKings identifies Washington as its 13th most-bet team for the Stanley Cup.
Alex Ovechkin lights the lamp for his 899th goal to pad the Capitals` lead.
For Tuesday`s game, the Capitals are +115 underdogs against the Stars (-135), with an over/under of 5.5 goals (-130 for over). Ovechkin is +155 to score a goal. BetMGM reports strong support for Washington to win, with Ovechkin being the second most-backed player for a goal, though bets on him getting under 3.5 shots are also notably popular.
October 21: LeBron James` Injury Impacts Lakers` Odds
The news of LeBron James` right sciatica injury significantly impacted the Lakers` betting odds for their season opener and overall win total. Initially favored by 3 points against the Golden State Warriors, the Lakers became 2.5-point underdogs after James` absence was confirmed.
Veteran NBA oddsmaker Jeff Sherman from the Westgate SuperBook noted that while James is a key player, his individual value isn`t typically worth such a large point swing, attributing the significant line movement to the initial low spread.
“I don`t think LeBron individually is worth that many points… He`s not worth five and half points.”
Jeff Sherman, Veteran NBA Oddsmaker, Westgate SuperBook
James, 40, is projected to be out until mid-November, potentially missing about 12 games. Sherman adjusted the Lakers` season win total from 48.5 to 46.5, although the broader betting market saw only minor changes. Despite this early setback, the Lakers remain a top choice for bettors, drawing more championship wagers at the SuperBook than any other team.
October 17: AFC North`s Unpredictable Divisional Race
The AFC North division has been the most unpredictable in the NFL this season. The drama heightened when the Cincinnati Bengals, despite missing Joe Burrow, defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers as five-point underdogs. This upset significantly altered divisional odds: the Steelers, previously favorites at -160, saw their odds to win the AFC North lengthen to +115.
Conversely, the Bengals, rejuvenated by Joe Flacco, saw their divisional odds improve dramatically from 16-1 to +600. The Baltimore Ravens, on a bye week after a tough 1-5 start, inadvertently benefited from Pittsburgh`s loss, with their AFC North odds shortening from +160 to +130. BetMGM observed that the Ravens, despite not seeing their playoff odds shift, are heavily backed to miss the playoffs by handle. While Baltimore began the season as Super Bowl co-favorites, their current odds are 18-1.
Following the Bengals` upset, bettors largely abandoned Pittsburgh, with reports indicating the Ravens and Bengals combined for over two-thirds of the handle for the AFC North title, while the Steelers received minimal betting interest.
The Cleveland Browns remain longshots at 35-1 for the division. Their upcoming game against the Miami Dolphins is poised to have one of the season`s lowest totals, dropping from 40.5 to 36.5 due to adverse weather forecasts. With significant action on the under (up to 98% at BetMGM), this total could fall below the league-low 35.5 seen in their Week 5 game.
October 14: Major Shifts in NFL MVP Futures After Tumultuous Week 6
Week 6 concluded with significant shifts in NFL futures markets, largely influenced by the Atlanta Falcons` upset victory over the Buffalo Bills on Monday night. The most notable change occurred in the NFL MVP race, which saw a new favorite for the first time since Week 2.
Following two consecutive losses, reigning MVP Josh Allen of the Bills dropped from first to third in ESPN BET`s odds (+325). Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs ascended to the top spot (+200), while Baker Mayfield of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers continued his impressive climb, becoming the second favorite (+300). Although Allen started the season strong, Mahomes has garnered the most betting interest since Week 4. However, Baker Mayfield has emerged as the public`s clear favorite for MVP, attracting the most tickets at DraftKings and ESPN BET since opening day. BetMGM identifies Mayfield as its largest liability due to extensive betting.
“Baker Mayfield`s play has vaulted him up into top contention, and Josh Allen`s back-to-back losses have bumped him down a bit. Mahomes getting Rashee Rice back may be the boost he needs, but we still have a long way to go. There`s no clear front runner this early on in the NFL MVP race.”
Christian Cipollini, Trading Manager, BetMGM
Top 5 NFL MVP Candidates
| Player, Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes, KC | +200 |
| Baker Mayfield, TB | +300 |
| Josh Allen, BUF | +325 |
| Drake Maye, NE | 11-1 |
| Matthew Stafford, LAR | 16-1 |
Beyond the top three, New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye is rapidly gaining traction, moving from 50-1 preseason odds to 11-1, now in fourth place.
The Ripple Effect
Maye`s strong performance has propelled the Patriots to a 4-2 record and first in the AFC East, reflected in their divisional odds shortening from +550 to +185. Conversely, the Bills` recent losses have lengthened their AFC East odds from -350 to -225. These shifts have also impacted the Super Bowl market, with the Chiefs joining the Bills as co-favorites at +600.
Duncan Priestley