Back to School Shopping: How Parents are Buying for Gen Alpha

Parents today face the challenge of dressing school-aged children (5-18) for the return to school, with fashion being more important than ever, while simultaneously contending with a difficult economic climate.

The current economic situation, marked by rising inflation and a general sense of economic uncertainty among consumers, creates a backdrop of financial strain for many families. For instance, a significant portion of Americans anticipate the economy worsening in the coming months, a sentiment that has not been reported so high since 2020.

In regions where school uniforms are not mandatory, school fashion is dictated by what children deem "cool." This is particularly challenging in an era influenced by social media trends like "Buy Everything They Touch" on platforms such as TikTok. For many US households, back-to-school shopping is an essential expenditure, given the average number of children per family.

Compounding these economic pressures are factors like rising gas prices, making the macroeconomic environment for back-to-school shopping far from ideal. However, parents are not necessarily cutting back on spending but are instead adopting a more discerning approach. There's a noticeable shift towards fewer, but more thoughtfully chosen, items. Sneakers and outerwear are emerging as key budget areas, driven by the fashion preferences of both parents and children. Generation Alpha kids have developed a sophisticated and rapidly evolving taste for fashion, influenced by unboxing videos and short-form social media trends. Consequently, the distinct subcultures of childhood fashion have blurred, with elementary and young teenage consumers often consuming the same content and shopping for the same brands as young adults.

This trend leads to reduced brand loyalty but a more defined aesthetic. Key trends include minimalist, clean, and slightly oversized silhouettes influenced by streetwear and skate culture. There's also a resurgence of Y2K color palettes and playful logos reminiscent of what millennial parents wore. Retailers are responding quickly to these shifts. Department stores are highlighting sporty prep styles, statement sneakers, denim, and activewear. Backpacks, ranging from classic designs to bolder options, are also a strong category. Novelty denim, patchwork, and embellished sweatshirts, as well as graphic tees for all genders, are also seeing significant demand.

For brands and retailers aiming to succeed, innovation and offering newness are crucial. The back-to-school season represents the second-largest retail sales period annually, and current results are promising. While the average budget per child remains consistent, the overall market value for back-to-school shopping is substantial. Value-driven promotions are still important for parents, but the strategy and retail offerings need to be refined.

Smart Shoppers Spend More

A significant finding is that US parents plan to increase their spending across different income levels as their use of digital tools, including search engines, social media, and AI, grows. Consumers who utilize more advanced digital tools tend to allocate larger budgets for back-to-school shopping compared to those who do not use technology or only use basic search engines.

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English Translation:

Parents today have a lot to manage, including raising increasingly digitized and discerning children as term time approaches. The central issue? Fashion for school-aged children (5-18) is more critical than ever, yet the economic climate is straining parents' finances.

For context, US inflation reached 4.2% in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. A recent Deloitte survey indicates that consumer sentiment remains fragile, with 57% of Americans anticipating economic deterioration in the next six months, the highest figure reported by the company since 2020.

Across the US and globally, where uniforms are not standard, school fashion is what a child considers fashionable, a notion amplified in an age where TikTok trends like "Buy Everything They Touch" — viral videos where parents buy every item their child selects in a store — are prevalent. In the US, with an average of 1.58 children per woman based on Congressional Budget Office (CBO) fertility rate predictions, back-to-school shopping is a necessity for a large segment of households. (The CBO forecasts a decline in fertility rates to 1.53 per mother by 2036, signaling future economic headwinds.) A 2024 UCLA study found that 27% of married same-sex couples under 50 have at least one child.

Adding to this, the conflict in the Middle East is driving up gas prices, creating a far-from-optimal macroeconomic backdrop for back-to-school shopping. However, there's a twist. While parents feel the financial pinch, they are not settling for lower-quality items; instead, they are "trading smart." Amrita Banta, managing director at Agility Research, notes, "We're seeing spending concentrate on fewer, more considered pieces," identifying sneakers and outerwear as current budget-stretchers, influenced by both parents and children. Members of Gen Alpha, having grown up with unboxing videos and rapid TikTok micro-trends, have developed self-directed, sharp, and fast-moving fashion tastes. The traditional tween culture has dissolved, as elementary and young teenage children often consume the same content as adults, frequently shopping the same brands as those in their twenties.

This results in diminished brand loyalty but a more cohesive aesthetic. Banta points to quiet, clean, and slightly oversized silhouettes, inspired by streetwear and skate culture, as a significant trend. She also observes a revival of Y2K color palettes and playful logos, similar to what millennial parents wore during their first fashion cycles. Retailers are adapting swiftly. Macy's highlights sporty prep, statement sneakers, denim, and activewear as key trends for the upcoming back-to-school season, aligning with analyst forecasts. Bloomingdale's chief merchant, Denise Magid, also notes backpacks as a strong and growing category, citing demand for classic Polo Ralph Lauren styles and bolder designs from brands like State and Sprayground. Furthermore, Bloomingdale's sees strong momentum for novelty denim, patchwork, and lace-embellished sweats, along with growth in graphic tees across genders.

For retailers and brands aiming to capture this market, differentiation will depend on novelty and innovation. "The back-to-school season is the second-largest period for retail sales each year, trailing only Christmas, and so far, the results have been encouraging," says Dana Telsey, CEO of Telsey Advisory Group. Indeed, while the expected budget per child remains stable at $557, Deloitte estimates the US back-to-school market at $30.4 billion. Promotions for value-conscious parents remain essential, but the approach and retail offerings require fine-tuning.

Smart Shoppers Spend More

One of Deloitte's most striking discoveries was that US parents intend to spend more across income segments as their use of digital tools — search tools, AI, social media — increases. The data revealed that non-tech users (20%) plan to spend $381, compared to $494 for consumers using search engines (30%), $531 for search and social media users (21%), and $737 for users of search, social media, and generative AI (29%).