The NHL Eastern Conference playoff race is rapidly intensifying. It’s anticipated that the minimum points required to clinch a postseason berth will fall between 97-98, suggesting that several strong teams will face early elimination and conclude their season sooner than hoped. Which clubs are best positioned to navigate this challenging final stretch?
Teams on the Bubble: Who’s Most at Risk?
We haven’t seen a season with such a high playoff cutoff in years, raising the stakes for every contender. So, which teams are most susceptible to missing out? The New York Islanders recently dropped out of a playoff position after a 4-3 loss to the Chicago Blackhawks, signaling a concerning trend. Over their last 25 games, the Islanders have maintained a respectable 49.87% expected goals share (xG%), but defensive lapses have become a significant issue.
The Islanders have been allowing an average of 2.89 expected goals per 60 minutes in their last 25 outings, placing them 23rd in the league. While this defensive vulnerability has been a season-long theme, they’ve largely compensated thanks to Ilya Sorokin, a top Vezina Trophy candidate who leads the NHL with 29.5 goals saved above expected. The crucial question remains: can he single-handedly propel them to the finish line for another three weeks?
Another team potentially at risk is the Boston Bruins. Similar to the Islanders, the Bruins’ five-on-five statistics present some warning signs. They’ve posted an xG% of 46.05% over their last 25 games and are conceding 2.95 expected goals per 60 minutes. Jeremy Swayman, also a leading Vezina contender, faces a similar challenge: can he carry the Bruins to the playoffs?
Both the Islanders and Bruins possess elite talents capable of turning games. Matthew Schaefer is the overwhelming favorite for the Calder Trophy and is likely to receive Norris Trophy votes. David Pastrnak, while not up for an award this season, is a well-established and dangerous scorer. Such individual brilliance can mitigate weaknesses in a team’s five-on-five play.
The Metropolitan Division Battle
The Metropolitan Division has been a roller coaster this season. Underperforming teams like the Washington Capitals and New Jersey Devils have created opportunities for others, including the Islanders, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Pittsburgh Penguins, to vie for playoff spots.
Just two points separate the Blue Jackets and Penguins, currently second and third in the Metro, from falling out of a playoff berth entirely. However, they might have better prospects of securing a spot than teams like the Islanders.
Let’s consider the Blue Jackets first. They have been utterly transformed since Rick Bowness took over as head coach, boasting an 18-3-4 record in their last 25 games, which has propelled them into a playoff position. This surge is no accident; they’ve emerged as one of the NHL’s top five-on-five teams during this period.
The Blue Jackets hold an xG% of 53.42% over their last 25 games, demonstrating their strength as a two-way force. They generate significant offense while minimizing chances for opponents, and Jet Greaves has been outstanding in net. Columbus appears destined for the playoffs (MoneyPuck gives them an 87.1% chance) and even seems capable of winning a round.
Meanwhile, in Pittsburgh, the Penguins have defied preseason expectations. Many, including myself, predicted them to be in the running for a top draft pick, but they are now poised to clinch a playoff spot. They are a robust five-on-five team with an xG% of 51.79% over their last 25 games, though some concerns linger.
Firstly, under head coach Dan Muse, the Penguins have embraced a high-octane, run-and-gun style. They create a wealth of scoring opportunities but also concede many. They’re allowing 2.83 expected goals per 60 minutes over their last 25 games, and their goaltending isn’t on par with what the Islanders have in Sorokin or the Bruins in Swayman. While they’ve demonstrated an ability to outscore their defensive issues by generating more than they allow, their situation could become precarious if their scoring touch wanes.
Can the Senators and Red Wings Make a Push?
The stakes are high in Detroit. While it’s not a Stanley Cup-or-bust season, making the playoffs feels essential. General Manager Steve Yzerman has been at the helm since 2019, yet the Red Wings have not made the postseason under his tenure.
The Red Wings are an intriguing team. On one hand, their five-on-five metrics are solid, with an xG% of 50.88% over their last 25 games. On the other hand, they have a -4 goal differential across all strengths. They are the only team in this discussion with a negative goal differential chasing a playoff spot, and they are trending in the wrong direction. Their recent 3-2 regulation loss to the Ottawa Senators reduced their playoff odds to 45.8%. While it’s not over for Detroit, they have squandered a significant 7-point cushion on a playoff spot.
Speaking of the Senators, they have been one of the NHL’s best five-on-five teams for much of the season, particularly over their last 25 games. Their 57.21% xG% ranks first among all teams during this period. They also boast a +23 goal differential across all strengths, and their goaltending, which was among the league’s worst pre-Olympics, is finally showing improvement.
The challenge for the Senators now is a mounting injury list. Thomas Chabot and Lassi Thomson could be out for an extended period, joining Jake Sanderson and Nick Jensen on the sidelines. These absences could hurt them over the final three weeks of the regular season. Despite these setbacks, they continue to defy expectations and currently hold one of the Eastern Conference wild-card spots.
The East: A Down-to-the-Wire Finish
Given the tight standings, predicting the final playoff berths in the East feels like a gamble. However, let’s make some projections. The Blue Jackets have been one of the league’s strongest teams since Bowness took charge, and they appear on track to clinch a spot. The Penguins have defensive and goaltending concerns, but their current position is favorable; I would wager on them securing third place in the Metro.
As long as the Senators’ goaltending remains stable, they should make the playoffs. Their league-leading five-on-five numbers are typically a strong indicator of future success. Currently, it seems the Islanders and Red Wings are more likely to miss out, but the race will undoubtedly go down to the wire. This sets the stage for an electrifying final three weeks of the regular season.