Fantasy Hockey Goalie Guide: Toronto & Vegas Feature Key Draft Prospects

Connor Hellebuyck`s dominant Vezina and Hart Trophy-winning performance in the 2024-25 season brought back memories of a different era. While goaltender tandems have become common in today`s NHL, Hellebuyck, among a few others, proves that the traditional primary goaltender is still relevant, though its definition may need updating.

Examining data from the past 16 seasons, split into eight years before and eight years after the Vegas Golden Knights` expansion, reveals significant shifts. Between 2009-10 and 2016-17, a top-12 fantasy goalie typically played 74.1% of their team`s minutes, averaging 35.2 wins and 215.7 fantasy points. During this period, 25% of teams had a goaltender with 75% or more of the crease share, and 54.2% had at least 65%.

Conversely, from 2017-18 to 2024-25, the average crease share for a top-12 fantasy goalie dropped to 65.0%, yielding averages of 32.6 wins and 181.2 fantasy points. In this latter period, only 7.9% of teams featured a goaltender with 75% or more crease share, and just 33.3% had at least 65%.

(Note: Data for the 2012-13, 2019-20, and 2020-21 seasons has been prorated to an 82-game schedule.)

Post-expansion, goaltenders generally spent less time in the net. In 2024-25, only two goalies surpassed a 75% crease share: Connor Hellebuyck and Andrei Vasilevskiy, who together account for 11 of 20 such instances, indicating a significant concentration of workload. Beyond these two, only Juuse Saros and Carey Price have reached the 75% mark twice.

During the pre-expansion period (2009-10 to 2016-17), a total of 17 goalies recorded multiple seasons with at least a 75% crease share, with an additional 11 achieving it once. This shows that heavy workloads for goaltenders were a more widespread phenomenon back then, rather than being concentrated among a few stars.

However, by slightly adjusting our definition of a `No. 1` goalie to a minimum of 65% crease share, we observe an increase in single-goaltender dominance. While only eight goalies met this criterion in 2023-24, that number rose to 15 last season.

In summary, a 65.0% crease share serves as a reasonable benchmark for a top-12 fantasy goaltender since 2017-18. This percentage is ideal for `set-and-forget` goalies, particularly in leagues with weekly lineup locks where daily adjustments for backups aren`t possible.

Identified No. 1 Goaltenders by Crease Share

Here are 15 goaltenders who achieved and are expected to maintain at least 65% of their team`s crease share. Note that Blackwood and Knight exceeded this threshold only after joining their new teams, not over the entire season.

Goalies Projected for Primary Workloads

Additionally, we can anticipate primary workloads for five more goaltenders, who, despite not meeting the 65% mark last season due to factors like injuries or existing veteran presence, are projected to assume a clear No. 1 role this season without an apparent tandem.

Monitoring goaltender tandems remains crucial for the upcoming season. Firstly, a heavy workload doesn`t guarantee strong fantasy performance, as illustrated by Saros and the Predators last season. Secondly, tandems offer significant value, particularly in daily lineup formats, due to their lower draft cost compared to full-time starters. Thirdly, time-sharing arrangements aren`t always permanent; young goaltenders, especially, can evolve from a tandem role into a dominant fantasy asset.

Now, let`s analyze the 12 NHL teams that are not expected to have a single goaltender start 54 games or more (65% crease share) this season, presented alphabetically.

Buffalo Sabres Goaltending Outlook

• Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: 64.8% crease share, 33.2 fantasy points (26.5 years old)

• James Reimer: 33.9% crease share, 32.6 fantasy points (37.5 years old)

• Devon Levi: 9.8% crease share, -13.0 fantasy points (23.7 years old)

2025-26 Roster

• Alexandar Georgiev: 54.79% crease share (with COL, SJS), -35.4 fantasy points (29.6 years old)

• Devon Levi

• Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

• Alex Lyon: 31.66% crease share (with DET), 40.2 fantasy points (32.8 years old)

For the Sabres, it wouldn`t be surprising to see all four goaltenders receive playing time this season. However, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen appears to have the most upside. The key takeaway is that unless Buffalo performs significantly better than anticipated, their goaltending situation is unlikely to offer much fantasy value, as even their primary starter barely registered 30 points last year.

Carolina Hurricanes Goaltending Outlook

• Pyotr Kochetkov: 57.0% crease share, 84.8 fantasy points (26.2 years old)

• Frederik Andersen: 27.0% crease share, 44.0 fantasy points (36.0 years old)

• Spencer Martin: 8.5% crease share, -8.4 fantasy points (30.3 years old)

• Dustin Tokarski: 7.3% crease share, 16.8 fantasy points (36.0 years old)

• Yaniv Perets: 0.2% crease share, -0.8 fantasy points (25.6 years old)

2025-26 Roster

• Frederik Andersen

• Pyotr Kochetkov

• Cayden Primeau: 10.62% crease share (with MTL), -31.2 fantasy points (26.1 years old)

Frederik Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov are likely to split duties, with Kochetkov having earned increased trust. While a `changing of the guard` might occur if the Hurricanes weren`t in their current competitive window, we can expect Andersen to continue seeing significant action. This tandem could be one of the rare exceptions worth drafting, as both goaltenders are expected to provide solid fantasy returns.

Columbus Blue Jackets Goaltending Outlook

• Elvis Merzlikins: 64.3% crease share, 53.6 fantasy points (31.4 years old)

• Daniil Tarasov: 22.3% crease share, -1.0 fantasy points (26.5 years old)

• Jet Greaves: 13.4% crease share, 57.4 fantasy points (24.5 years old)

2025-26 Roster

• Ivan Fedotov: 28.97% crease share (with PHI), -12.0 fantasy points (28.8 years old)

• Jet Greaves

• Elvis Merzlikins

Ivan Fedotov introduces more competition, but Jet Greaves impressed with stellar numbers in just 11 appearances last season, positioning him with the most momentum heading into 2025-26. The Blue Jackets seem poised for more wins, suggesting that any goaltender who emerges as the primary starter could be a sleeper pick. However, any split duties would cap their fantasy utility for non-streaming purposes. Nevertheless, Greaves is a promising stash for keeper leagues if he and the team continue their progress.

Detroit Red Wings Goaltending Outlook

• Cam Talbot: 53.6% crease share, 70.4 fantasy points (38.2 years old)

• Alex Lyon: 31.7% crease share, 40.2 fantasy points (32.8 years old)

• Petr Mrazek: 25.0% crease share, 9.4 fantasy points (33.6 years old)

• Ville Husso: 12.6% crease share, -13.0 fantasy points (30.6 years old)

• Sebastian Cossa: 0.9% crease share, 2.4 fantasy points (22.8 years old)

2025-26 Roster

• Sebastian Cossa

• John Gibson: 31.62% crease share (with ANA), 50.0 fantasy points (32.2 years old)

• Cam Talbot

Ideally, this wouldn`t be a tandem situation, as John Gibson should command a No. 1 role at this stage of his career. However, years of struggling with the Ducks raise questions about whether his overall performance has declined or if a change of scenery is all he needs. Consider Darcy Kuemper`s turnaround last season: written off in Washington, he rediscovered his form and finished among the top goaltenders. Gibson represents a strong, patient investment at the draft.

Edmonton Oilers Goaltending Outlook

• Stuart Skinner: 60.0% crease share, 78.0 fantasy points (26.9 years old)

• Calvin Pickard: 38.4% crease share, 71.6 fantasy points (33.4 years old)

• Olivier Rodrigue: 1.6% crease share, -3.0 fantasy points (25.2 years old)

2025-26 Roster

• Calvin Pickard

• Stuart Skinner

Is this truly a tandem? Ideally for the Oilers, it shouldn`t be close to one. Yet, Stuart Skinner has consistently left the door open for Calvin Pickard to claim starts. Despite being on a team projected for over 50 wins and Skinner clearly being the 1A, it`s difficult to fully trust his recent performance. Did you recall they both won the same number of playoff games last summer? Skinner will get the opportunity to seize the primary role, but he shouldn`t be drafted with that outcome as a certainty.

Philadelphia Flyers Goaltending Outlook

• Samuel Ersson: 52.8% crease share, 32.6 fantasy points (25.9 years old)

• Ivan Fedotov: 29.0% crease share, -12.0 fantasy points (28.8 years old)

• Aleksei Kolosov: 18.3% crease share, -16.6 fantasy points (23.7 years old)

2025-26 Roster

• Samuel Ersson

• Aleksei Kolosov

• Dan Vladar: 35.88% crease share (with CGY), 39.4 fantasy points (28.1 years old)

Is it acceptable to just write `nothing of note here`? I`ll attempt it and see if it makes the cut. (Editor`s note: Approved)

Pittsburgh Penguins Goaltending Outlook

• Tristan Jarry: 40.9% crease share, 39.4 fantasy points (30.4 years old)

• Alex Nedeljkovic: 43.5% crease share, 28.8 fantasy points (29.7 years old)

• Joel Blomqvist: 15.6% crease share, -5.8 fantasy points (23.7 years old)

2025-26 Roster

• Joel Blomqvist

• Tristan Jarry

• Arturs Silovs: 10.96% crease share (with VAN), -15.8 fantasy points (24.5 years old)

Joel Blomqvist showed flashes of potential early last season, while Tristan Jarry found some life late, and Arturs Silovs remains an unknown factor. The broader outlook suggests the Penguins are more likely to be in the draft lottery conversation than consistently winning, so fantasy results from their crease will probably be limited. However, with Sidney Crosby still leading the charge, we can`t completely rule out the possibility of the Penguins finding a rhythm, from which one of these three might benefit.

San Jose Sharks Goaltending Outlook

• Alexandar Georgiev: 56.8% crease share, -35.2 fantasy points (29.6 years old)

• Mackenzie Blackwood: 54.1% crease share, 29.4 fantasy points (28.8 years old)

• Vitek Vanecek: 26.2% crease share, -17.0 fantasy points (29.7 years old)

• Yaroslav Askarov: 14.6% crease share, 8.0 fantasy points (23.3 years old)

• Georgi Romanov: 8.5% crease share, -15.6 fantasy points (25.8 years old)

2025-26 Roster

• Yaroslav Askarov

• Alex Nedeljkovic: 43.51% crease share (with PIT), 28.8 fantasy points (29.7 years old)

• Jakub Skarek: 1.55% crease share (with NYI), -3.2 fantasy points (25.9 years old)

Within the next two to three seasons, the Sharks are poised to become contenders, which bodes extremely well for Yaroslav Askarov`s development into a full-time starter. With Alex Nedeljkovic likely forming a tandem this season, Askarov is still a season or two away from primary status, but keep a close eye on him if San Jose starts to heat up. In the interim, Askarov is a valuable asset to stash in keeper leagues.

Toronto Maple Leafs Goaltending Outlook

• Anthony Stolarz: 40.5% crease share, 133.6 fantasy points (31.7 years old)

• Joseph Woll: 49.8% crease share, 110.6 fantasy points (27.2 years old)

• Matt Murray (TOR): 2.4% crease share, 0.2 fantasy points (31.3 years old)

• Dennis Hildeby: 7.3% crease share, -0.6 fantasy points (24.1 years old)

2025-26 Roster

• Dennis Hildeby

• Anthony Stolarz

• Joseph Woll

The Maple Leafs represent the `gold standard` for tandems, with both goaltenders surpassing 100 fantasy points last season despite neither achieving a 50% crease share. Returning with an equally strong defensive system under coach Craig Berube, early Average Draft Position (ADP) trends clearly favor Stolarz (82.3 vs. 207.9), making Woll the more strategic goaltender to target for value.

Vancouver Canucks Goaltending Outlook

• Arturs Silovs: 11.0% crease share, -15.8 fantasy points (24.5 years old)

• Kevin Lankinen: 61.0% crease share, 100.0 fantasy points (30.4 years old)

• Thatcher Demko: 26.3% crease share, 21.2 fantasy points (29.8 years old)

• Nikita Tolopilo: 1.7% crease share, 2.2 fantasy points (25.5 years old)

2025-26 Roster

• Thatcher Demko

• Kevin Lankinen

• Nikita Tolopilo

Thatcher Demko remains on a team-friendly deal this season, but his salary increases next year, committing the Canucks to $13 million for the Demko-Lankinen duo through at least 2028-29. Kevin Lankinen proved to be a strong fantasy asset during Demko`s injury last season, although both struggled towards the end of the campaign. Demko possesses top-tier fantasy potential with a heavy workload, but Lankinen`s emergence will likely limit him to around 45 starts if both remain healthy. Demko is a solid mid-round selection, though drafting Lankinen as insurance in later rounds might be wise.

Vegas Golden Knights Goaltending Outlook

• Adin Hill: 59.7% crease share, 137.2 fantasy points (29.4 years old)

• Ilya Samsonov: 35.5% crease share, 43.8 fantasy points (28.6 years old)

• Akira Schmid: 4.8% crease share, 16.0 fantasy points (25.4 years old)

2025-26 Roster

• Adin Hill

• Akira Schmid

Adin Hill is at the optimal age for goaltenders (the average age for a top-12 fantasy goalie in the data is 29). His 59.7% crease share was a career high, and this season his endurance will be tested with only Akira Schmid as his backup. There`s a strong argument to include Hill among the primary starters mentioned earlier. His ADP as the eighth goalie drafted is justified, as a true tandem seems improbable for Vegas this season.

Washington Capitals Goaltending Outlook

• Charlie Lindgren: 46.3% crease share, 54.8 fantasy points (31.8 years old)

• Logan Thompson: 51.3% crease share, 139.4 fantasy points (28.6 years old)

• Hunter Shepard: 1.2% crease share, -10.2 fantasy points (29.9 years old)

• Clay Stevenson: 1.2% crease share, -3.4 fantasy points (26.6 years old)

2025-26 Roster

• Charlie Lindgren

• Logan Thompson

While last season saw an almost 50-50 tandem split, Logan Thompson emerged as the superior goaltender. He likely earned a larger share this season, but it might not be enough to elevate him to fantasy elite status at his position. There`s also uncertainty about whether the Capitals can replicate anything close to their surprising President`s Trophy-winning campaign. Nevertheless, Thompson`s ADP as the 13th goalie represents a discount, and Charlie Lindgren is a worthwhile consideration for insurance.