Forecasting the NHL 2025-26 Season: Every Team’s Final Standings

The constant power shifts in the Atlantic are perhaps best exemplified by the Lightning`s failure to top the division since 2018-19. This is despite a roster featuring Nikita Kucherov (second only to Connor McDavid in points over the last three seasons), Andrei Vasilevskiy (third in save percentage), Victor Hedman (seventh in defensemen points and a defensive anchor), and other talents like Brayden Point, Anthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel, and Jake Guentzel. Behind the bench, Jon Cooper is widely regarded as the league`s top coach, even if Jack Adams Award voters disagree.

This season, Tampa Bay is expected to win the Atlantic comfortably. Kucherov`s line with Point and Guentzel has been scoring over four goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. The Cirelli-Hagel duo boasted a 61% expected goals percentage last season. Ryan McDonagh`s return provided an underappreciated defensive season in 2024-25. With full seasons from Oliver Bjorkstrand and Yanni Gourde, and the potential for Gage Goncalves to elevate his game, the Lightning are poised to raise another banner this season.

From the bottom of the Atlantic, the Senators have emerged as contenders, making the playoffs last spring for the first time since 2017. Their upward trajectory depends on the forward group`s performance. Captain Brady Tkachuk needs to return to the mid-30s in goals, and linemate Tim Stützle must hit the 90-point mark. Dylan Cozens, a trade deadline acquisition, has already proven his value. However, the season largely rests on players like Shane Pinto, Ridly Greig, and Fabian Zetterlund.

Confidence remains high in the Senators` defense. Jake Sanderson has established himself as an elite top-pairing defenseman, allowing Thomas Chabot to excel on the second pairing with Nick Jensen. Jordan Spence, acquired from the Kings, significantly upgrades the defensive corps. Linus Ullmark`s outstanding performance from December onwards last season, combined with potential Calder Trophy candidate Leevi Merilainen, bodes well for goaltending. Under coach Travis Green, the team has improved defensively, making the Senators a team to watch as others in the Atlantic make adjustments.

The departure of Mitch Marner translates directly to a loss of points for the Maple Leafs. Marner, a 100-point winger, led the team in power-play points and was their top penalty-killing forward. While his playoff struggles drew criticism, his regular-season wins above replacement (2.8) were unmatched on the Leafs. His return to Toronto with Vegas on January 23rd is expected to be an event of significant magnitude.

The “Core Four” is now down to three, but Matthew Knies looks ready to step up, following a 29-goal campaign, potentially replacing some of Marner`s offensive output. William Nylander, eighth in goals over the past three seasons, remains a consistent threat alongside John Tavares, who, at 35, is a shadow of his former self. Auston Matthews, expected to score over 60 goals this season based on his career pace, will be crucial for the Leafs, especially after injuries hampered his performance last season. This would also be vital for Team USA in the upcoming Olympic Games.

The Leafs acquired Matias Maccelli from Utah to help fill Marner`s void, a puzzling choice given his low hit count for a Craig Berube-coached team. Berube`s influence is evident throughout the roster: Nicolas Roy, from Vegas in the Marner trade, is a solid third-line center. A full season of Brandon Carlo reinforces a physical blue line protecting goaltenders Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz, who impressed despite injury concerns. This team possesses a resilience that typically leads to playoff success. However, the Maple Leafs might struggle due to a lack of superstar offensive skill around their core.

Regarding talent reductions: Can the Panthers endure without Matthew Tkachuk until at least December and Aleksander Barkov until April? The likely answer in this conference is “probably.” However, it is with regret that the Panthers` bid for a three-peat could end in missing the playoffs entirely, especially after three straight trips to the Stanley Cup Final.

Sam Reinhart is undoubtedly the Panthers` most crucial player this season. In the past two seasons, playing without Barkov at 5-on-5, the Panthers scored 0.75 fewer goals per 60 minutes with Reinhart on the ice, while breaking even on goals for and against. Coach Paul Maurice is expected to elevate Brad Marchand alongside Sam Bennett, with Eetu Luostarinen and Anton “Baby Barkov” Lundell playing with Reinhart during Tkachuk`s absence. Upon Tkachuk`s return, Reinhart, with 160 goals in 321 games since joining the Panthers, will still need to drive his line in Barkov`s absence, which is not guaranteed.

Perhaps there`s a liberating aspect for a two-time defending champion to start a season with reduced pressure due to injuries. The Panthers already had a “just get in” playoff mindset. Now, they can bunker down, relying on a defensive structure fortified by arguably the conference`s best top four defensemen (Aaron Ekblad, Gus Forsling, Seth Jones, Niko Mikkola) in front of Sergei Bobrovsky. GM Bill Zito kept this core together, aiming to be the NHL`s first dynasty with three consecutive Cups since the 1980s Islanders. With healthy Tkachuk and Barkov, the three-peat is within reach. However, securing a playoff spot will be more challenging than any season since Maurice`s arrival in Sunrise.

The Sabres are the Atlantic`s most enigmatic team this season, having regressed in consecutive seasons. Health is a perpetual concern, particularly with Josh Norris as a key center. Goaltending seems more hopeful than Vezina-caliber. While Tage Thompson`s offensive output for an Olympic spot and Rasmus Dahlin`s potential Norris Trophy candidacy are givens, GM Kevyn Adams` incremental roster improvements don`t appear to address the team`s numerous questions.

Nevertheless, the hockey analytics community shows significant optimism for the Sabres this season, with most analysts predicting over 90 points, and some forecasting as high as 99. As Jack `JFresh` Fraser notes, the team has seemingly patched up its abundant weak links with players like Ryan McLeod, Owen Power, Zach Benson, Alex Tuch, Josh Doan, Jason Zucker, Michael Kesselring, and Conor Timmins. Combined with superstars like Dahlin and Thompson, there`s a compelling case for improvement, though not one to bet on.

The Canadiens, after a playoff berth last season ending in a five-game loss to Washington, are projected to take a step back before eventually moving forward. Their primary weakness is defense, with their expected goals against at even strength (2.87, 31st) worse than the San Jose Sharks and ranking fourth from the bottom in scoring chances allowed. Despite offensive additions like Noah Dobson and Ivan Demidov, defensive issues may have worsened. Sam Montembeault`s goaltending, saving 25 goals above expected last season, can only cover so many deficiencies.

GM Steve Yzerman`s “Yzerplan” for the Red Wings, in effect since 2019, saw its latest adjustment with the acquisition of John Gibson from Anaheim for the final two years of his contract. Detroit utilized four goalies last season, with Cam Talbot being the only consistent performer. This new goaltending duo under coach Todd McLellan is a concern, especially given Gibson`s injury history. Otherwise, it`s another season hoping for progression from young bright spots like Moritz Seider, Simon Edvinsson, Lucas Raymond, and Marco Kasper. Without significant growth from these players, Detroit faces trouble. The Wings lack the talent for playoffs but have enough to limit their lottery odds, an unfortunate consequence of the Yzerplan.

The Bruins might be underestimated here. If their defense, led by Charlie McAvoy, remains healthy in front of Jeremy Swayman (who had a proper training camp this time), they could grind out wins for first-year coach Marco Sturm. McAvoy, limited to 50 games last season with his lowest points-per-60 minutes average in six seasons, returning to Norris Trophy contention is crucial. However, even McAvoy`s resurgence won`t reverse the tide for Boston, whose overall depth reflects a team that engaged in a selling spree at the last trade deadline. David Pastrnak, like Ilya Kovalchuk on the Atlanta Thrashers, will produce 50 goals and a 100-point pace regardless of his teammates, but for a basement-dwelling team.

The Hurricanes, alongside the Oilers and Golden Knights, have the best playoff odds, highlighting the relative strengths of the Metro and Pacific divisions. After famously predicting the Hurricanes would miss the playoffs last year (and watching them reach the conference finals), picking them to win the Metro and the Eastern Conference is an acknowledgment that Carolina has found the perfect blend of veteran impact players and exceptional young stars within the NHL`s most consistent coaching system.

GM Eric Tulsky`s journey has been eventful. Acquiring Jake Guentzel at the 2024 trade deadline only to see him depart for Tampa Bay after a second-round exit. Last season, Tulsky brought in Taylor Hall from Chicago and Mikko Rantanen from Colorado for Martin Necas, but Rantanen was traded after just 13 games due to his unwillingness to commit long-term. This resulted in Carolina gaining Logan Stankoven, an impressive 22-year-old forward, and several draft picks from Dallas. After exploring free agency for top-line left-wing help, the Hurricanes signed Nikolaj Ehlers from the Jets, a play-driving winger with an injury history, well-suited to their system. The money saved from Rantanen went to Ehlers and defenseman K`Andre Miller, acquired from the Rangers using one of the Dallas first-rounders, further bolstering a deep defense corps that includes Alexander Nikishin, one of the NHL`s best rookies.

Concerns for the Canes include the second-line center position, where Jesperi Kotkaniemi has underperformed. Stankoven and Seth Jarvis are internal solutions being considered. Tulsky may use cap space and draft capital to address this or goaltending, where Frederik Andersen remains dominant but injury-prone, and Pyotr Kochetkov hasn`t proven to be an upgrade. Rod Brind`Amour has led the Hurricanes to a .604 points percentage or better in six of his seven seasons as head coach, reaching the conference finals three times without a Stanley Cup appearance. This tenacious and talented group, with room for improvement, is poised to break through this season.

Are the Devils reserving their resources for a potential pursuit of Quinn Hughes? It would be prudent if there`s any chance Vancouver might trade him before his 2027 unrestricted free agency to “play with his brothers.” However, the Devils` decision to fine-tune rather than make blockbuster moves likely stems from confidence in their current roster, especially with a healthy Jack Hughes.

With Hughes in the lineup before his March 2nd injury, the Devils were 33-23-6, building a points cushion that secured a playoff spot despite losing 12 of their final 21 games. Hughes, with over 3.2 points per 60 minutes in his last four seasons, is the Devils` offensive engine and a factor in Luke Hughes` recent $63 million contract. If Luke is content, Jack is likely happy too.

The Capitals face uncertainty regarding 40-year-old Alex Ovechkin, now the NHL`s all-time leading goal scorer with 897, and in the final year of his contract. However, coach Spencer Carbery expressed relief that the team isn`t navigating another “Ovi`s last season” narrative, replacing “The Great Chase.”

Carbery noted that the absence of a “last time” narrative in every building, especially against Western teams, allows the Capitals to focus on replicating their incredible 111-point campaign from last season, which saw them reach the second round of the playoffs. GM Chris Patrick`s successful offseason moves with Pierre-Luc Dubois, Jakob Chychrun, and Logan Thompson, combined with continued progression from young players like Aliaksei Protas and Ryan Leonard, should keep Ovechkin competitive in what could be his final NHL season.

Last season was chaotic for the Rangers, as regime changes often are. GM Chris Drury`s tough stance with veterans led to captain Jacob Trouba and franchise cornerstone Chris Kreider moving to Anaheim, while former Ranger J.T. Miller returned from Vancouver to take on a leadership role. Coach Peter Laviolette lost his job following the team`s decline after reaching the conference finals. Mike Sullivan, another former Ranger (assistant coach from 2009-2013), stepped in after escaping the rebuilding Penguins.

The Rangers possess sufficient talent to overcome significant lineup gaps and secure a playoff spot this season. Miller`s arrival helped Mika Zibanejad recover from a nightmare season. Will Cuylle is an emerging star expected to fill much of Kreider`s role. The line of Alexis Lafrenière, Artemi Panarin, and Vincent Trocheck is a reliable force, with Panarin also in a contract year.

Adam Fox needs to rediscover his Norris Trophy form, and the addition of Kings defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov as a free agent should help. Assuming Igor Shesterkin rebounds with better defensive structure (he saved 21.6 goals above expected last season), the Rangers should be the fourth Metro playoff team, if not more.

The Blue Jackets` performance last season, finishing just two points out of a playoff spot despite unfathomable grief, was truly inspiring. The team`s development in Columbus is promising, and a wild-card spot is not out of the question.

It`s conceivable that Adam Fantilli, Kent Johnson, and Kirill Marchenko will all take significant steps forward, supported by an improved cast, including the excellent addition of Charlie Coyle. Denton Mateychuk could have a breakout season on a blue line needing more skill. However, the season likely hinges on 24-year-old Jet Greaves` ability to claim the crease from Elvis Merzlikins, as someone needs to.

With a relaxed dress code mandated by the CBA and the post-Lou Lamoriello lifting of facial hair restrictions, the Islanders` dressing room might resemble a festival. This organization is overdue for an injection of personality, which arrives in the form of 18-year-old Matthew Schaefer, the No. 1 pick, boasting boundless enthusiasm and charisma. The roster largely remains the one Lamoriello built, which finished with 82 points last season. A full season from Mathew Barzal might slightly improve that total, but not significantly.

Assessing the playoff potential of the Penguins is futile, as their roster resembles a random name generator surrounding a core of six veterans trapped in hockey purgatory under new head coach Dan Muse. All discussions about this team will revolve around the trade deadline fate of that core, particularly Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.

Everyone around Sid wishes the legend would detach himself from this narrative, join a Stanley Cup contender, and thrive in the postseason spotlight again. Yet, he remains steadfast in seeing things through in Pittsburgh, in a “Shein” version of the Capitals` retool around Ovechkin. Optimism remains for Crosby to change his mind. Even more convincing is the likelihood of Malkin moving this season, especially after he observed Brad Marchand`s enjoyment with the Florida Panthers—a team near one of Malkin`s Miami homes and currently seeking a veteran No. 1 center.

The most the Flyers can hope for this season is continued progress from their young players as new coach Rick Tocchet meticulously instills fundamentals. They will be a tough opponent and entertaining to watch, depending on the ice time given to Trevor Zegras and Matvei Michkov for content creation. However, the Flyers are unlikely to dominate headlines in Philadelphia this season, allowing the Jalen Hurts discourse to continue uninterrupted.

The straightforward rationale for the Avalanche`s Stanley Cup victory is their re-establishment of championship building blocks. Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar are top-five NHL players, arguably the best in their positions outside of Connor McDavid. Brock Nelson fills the void at second-line center that persisted after Nazem Kadri`s departure. Mackenzie Blackwood provides goaltending with the potential to prevent series losses, if not win them outright.

(Results on Blackwood`s potential are pending.)

Can Martin Necas deliver 75% of Mikko Rantanen`s production, as gambled in the trade? Can Samuel Girard and Josh Manson form a reliable second pairing behind the elite Makar and Devon Toews? Can Gabriel Landeskog, after last season`s heartwarming but ultimately unfulfilled return, truly reclaim his former dominance? The answer to all is “yes.” Furthermore, an aggressive front office is expected to bolster the lineup before the postseason, through incremental or significant moves. Speculation also links Nathan MacKinnon, who grew up in Cole Harbour, Nova Scotia, to other current NHL events…

Since their 2022 Stanley Cup victory, the Avalanche have faced first-round elimination by Seattle, then second-round and another first-round loss to Dallas. The recent seven-game defeat to the Stars left MacKinnon “shocked” and struggling to process it. This palpable disgust is precisely what fueled MacKinnon`s first Cup win, suggesting the tank is nearly full again.

The initial question for the Stars is whether their three consecutive Western Conference Final appearances were due to Pete DeBoer`s coaching or simply a result of their talent, which he happened to coach. This will be revealed now that DeBoer has departed, with Glen Gulutzan, an Oilers assistant who previously coached the Stars from 2011 to 2013, taking the helm.

The Stars remain in an ideal NHL position: a blend of productive veterans, outstanding young players, and a franchise goaltender, forming a Cup-worthy team. Last season, Mikko Rantanen`s addition proved him a superstar with significant postseason impact.

The Mammoth are predicted to make the playoffs. The core built around Clayton Keller, Dylan Guenther, and Logan Cooley is believed to be the elite trio capable of powering a team to the postseason. Keller and Nick Schmaltz anchor one line, while Cooley, whose potential increasingly resembles Jack Hughes, centers Guenther and JJ Peterka, their major offseason acquisition from Buffalo.

Forward depth thins out after that, with more role players like Lawson Crouse and Brandon Tanev than impact players. However, this is acceptable; the Mammoth don`t need to be the Florida Panthers, just for their top two lines to be their driving force.

Nate Schmidt joins a Mammoth defense that battled injuries last season. A full season from Sean Durzi and John Marino is critical for Utah`s success. The debut and impact of rookie Maveric Lamoureux, a talented 6-foot-6 shutdown defender, will also be watched keenly. If Karel Vejmelka provides another strong season with dependable backup Vitek Vanecek, Salt Lake City awaits its first Stanley Cup playoff games.

The Jets are the strongest of these three teams, chosen to make the playoffs again thanks to Connor Hellebuyck, who deservedly won the Hart and Vezina Trophies last season. While his Olympic commitment adds physical and mental strain, he is expected to deliver at least 60 games of elite goaltending, capable of single-handedly driving a team to the postseason, akin to McDavid and MacKinnon.

Hellebuyck`s brilliance will be necessary, as the team in front of him is weaker following Nikolaj Ehlers` free agency departure. This further diminishes a team that ranked 20th in 5-on-5 scoring chances and 13th in expected goals last season. Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele combined for 80 goals last season. Without Ehlers, they need continued support from Gabriel Vilardi and more from Cole Perfetti. (Jonathan Toews` contributions as a second-line center at this stage of his career remain uncertain.)

Ultimately, the Jets` defensive solidity in front of the league`s best goaltender should secure a playoff spot, but it will be a significant drop from last season`s 116-point campaign.

The Blues were one shot away from eliminating the Jets in Game 7 of the first round before losing in double overtime—an ironic twist for Jordan Binnington after the 4 Nations Face-Off. Many aspects of the Blues are appealing, starting with coach Jim Montgomery. They went 35-18-7 after he abruptly took over from Drew Bannister 22 games into the season, instilling a defensive focus that saw the Blues rank fourth in NHL goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Jimmy Snuggerud is expected to be a rookie sensation, providing valuable secondary scoring behind Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou. While the aging curve of the top three defensemen is a concern, Colton Parayko regained prominence, and the team improved significantly after GM Doug Armstrong acquired Cam Fowler from the Ducks.

St. Louis is on the cusp of the playoff bubble. A playoff berth wouldn`t be surprising, nor would narrowly missing one, or even a second-place division finish given Montgomery`s coaching abilities. However, Montgomery`s teams can sometimes lack offensive punch without true star power—a past issue with David Pastrnak during his Bruins tenure. The Blues lack such a player, finishing 27th in expected goals per 60 minutes last season at 5-on-5. Therefore, a narrow miss is predicted.

The Wild are investing $136 million to retain Kirill Kaprizov through 2033-34. A bold prediction: at some point during this period, the Wild will build a Stanley Cup contender around him. The framework is visible now, with Brock Faber and Zeev Buium anchoring the defense, Jesper Wallstedt as the franchise goalie, and offensive contributions from Matt Boldy and Danila Yurov. The fate of Marco Rossi, however, remains a question mark.

This season feels like a transitional year for the Wild. Their offensive depth beyond a healthy Kaprizov is a concern. With Kaprizov limited to 41 games last season, the Wild were the NHL`s worst 5-on-5 offensive team, ranking 29th in expected goals percentage. This contributed to their minus-11 goal differential, second-worst among all playoff teams last season.

The Predators retained coach Andrew Brunette, not only due to GM Barry Trotz`s belief in his offensive philosophy but also because the team would likely pay him not to coach until at least 2027. Brunette was part of the offseason additions a year ago that led many to believe the Predators would be a Western Conference force. However, it became clear that the Lightning had correctly anticipated Steven Stamkos` decline, Brady Skjei was a product of the Hurricanes` system, and Jonathan Marchessault`s game is significantly better when surrounded by contender-level talent. Combined with Juuse Saros performing below replacement level, Nashville`s season was effectively over early, like Hattie B`s.

Will the Predators surpass 68 points this season? Undoubtedly, if Saros has an average season and the team avoids being out of the playoff race by early December, as they were last season with a 7-16-6 start in their first 29 games. But that won`t be enough for a Central Division playoff spot. Does Trotz need to have frank conversations with players holding long-term, trade-protected contracts about the team`s direction? Or can the team`s next wave—Matthew Wood, Fedor Svechkov, and eventually Brady Martin—break out in time to maximize the remaining years on those veteran contracts?

Finally, there are reasons to watch the Blackhawks beyond Connor Bedard, who might not spend the next seven months feeling dejected and competitively isolated. Frank Nazar is a legitimate prospect, though he`ll face similar “center who should be a winger” discussions as Bedard. Sam Rinzel`s potential as a 6-foot-4 power-play defenseman is also intriguing. The Blackhawks are expected to be poor—hopefully less so under new coach Jeff Blashill—but at least glimpses of the future, rather than veteran placeholders orbiting Bedard, will be available for 82 games.

Despite the fanfare surrounding Connor McDavid`s re-signing with the Oilers and foregoing free agency, the reality remains that he committed to only three more seasons in pursuit of the Stanley Cup. While this doesn`t inspire long-term confidence for the Oilers, it signifies McDavid`s belief in their short-term winning potential.

(And cheer up, Leon Draisaitl, even if McDavid departs in summer 2028 while you`re signed through 2032-33. Remember, Mark Messier won the Cup after Wayne Gretzky left!)

In many ways, this is the same team that again fell short against the Panthers in the Stanley Cup Final, albeit one that should see a healthy Zach Hyman return within months. GM Stan Bowman made some strategic subtractions (such as Evander Kane) and hopes veteran additions like Andrew Mangiapane and youth from players like Matthew Savoie can provide the secondary scoring needed behind Connor and Leon.

Edmonton`s top six defensemen are formidable, particularly with Jake Walman`s emergence. The goaltending, however, likely contributes to McDavid`s short-term extension choice. Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard, last seen struggling before a Stanley Cup Final elimination game, are back, and the Oilers hope former Utah goalie Connor Ingraham can contribute eventually. Kris Knoblauch has guided this team to a .656 points percentage in 151 regular-season games, a feat they can reasonably repeat. On paper, however, this team doesn`t appear destined for a third consecutive Stanley Cup Final appearance.