Gavin McKenna, the highly anticipated first overall pick in the 2026 NHL Draft, a 17-year-old hockey prodigy, is making waves that resonate across multiple facets of the sport. He represents a beacon of hope for any struggling NHL franchise fortunate enough to secure the top lottery pick. Furthermore, with an impressive 129 points in just 56 games last season for the Medicine Hat Tigers in the Western Hockey League, he emerges as a promising offensive talent for the NHL to promote, often likened to elite wingers such as Patrick Kane and Nikita Kucherov.
Beyond being a symbol of hope and future success, Gavin McKenna currently stands as a prime example of the profound shifts occurring between the NCAA, the Canadian Hockey League (CHL), and the NHL, fundamentally redefining the development pathways for aspiring NHL players.
McKenna caused considerable surprise in the hockey community by choosing to depart Canadian junior hockey for Penn State University`s men`s hockey team. Rather than staying in the CHL for what would likely have been another dominant season, he will instead join the Big Ten as an 18-year-old freshman, competing against older, more physically mature, and seasoned opponents.
“It was an incredibly difficult decision, with many excellent alternatives available. But my family, my inner circle, and I concluded that Penn State offers the optimal environment for me next season.”
McKenna`s pivotal decision coincides with sweeping reforms impacting NHL prospects. In November, the NCAA overturned a long-standing policy, declaring Canadian junior players eligible for Division I teams. This change, effective in August, eliminates the previous dilemma where athletes had to choose between the CHL and college hockey, making McKenna`s transfer to the NCAA one of the very first, and certainly the most high-profile.
“Gavin is exceptional. His dominance in junior hockey is a rarity, unmatched by many players in recent history.”
The NCAA`s landmark ruling converged with a period where college hockey programs were increasingly able to offer Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) financial incentives to players. Sources indicate McKenna`s NIL compensation for choosing Penn State is estimated “in the ballpark” of $700,000, while Michigan State, the other top contender for his commitment, reportedly offered between $200,000 and $300,000 in NIL deals, as reported by College Hockey Insider.
Penn State`s men`s hockey program became a Division I team in 2012, initially playing independently until their new arena, largely financed by Terry Pegula, a Penn State alumnus and owner of the Buffalo Sabres and Buffalo Bills, was completed. They integrated into the Big Ten conference in the 2013-14 season when the conference began sponsoring hockey.
Penn State hockey has consistently progressed. In 2015, Casey Bailey became their first alumnus to debut in the NHL with the Toronto Maple Leafs. The team secured the Big Ten tournament title in 2017 and the regular-season championship in 2020. This past season marked their inaugural appearance in the Frozen Four, where they fell to Boston University in the semifinals. Throughout this growth, they benefited from a cutting-edge new facility and a formidable home-ice advantage, fueled by their enthusiastic student fanbase.
“It`s a strong program; Penn State has excellent facilities. They are beginning to establish a distinct identity that sets them apart from established programs like Michigan, Michigan State, or Wisconsin.”
Now, the program boasts a star player whose name could become emblematic of Penn State hockey. Eight Nittany Lions players have been drafted by NHL teams. Recently, defenseman Jackson Smith became the program`s first-ever first-round draft pick, selected 14th overall by the Columbus Blue Jackets, despite being an incoming freshman.
However, the notion of Penn State producing a first overall NHL draft pick seemed improbable, even with NIL. That perception has now changed. Penn State coach Guy Gadowsky credits McKenna for his confidence and trust in the program.
“Regarding Penn State, I believe Gavin possesses a pioneering spirit. He aims to be a trailblazer and appears very comfortable with the accompanying pressure.”
Agent Pat Brisson, who previously represented top NHL draft picks like Sidney Crosby (2005, Pittsburgh Penguins), John Tavares (2009, New York Islanders), and Nathan MacKinnon (2013, Colorado Avalanche), is now working with McKenna, alongside Matt Williams, a promising agent at CAA.
“From the very beginning, Penn State was his clear preference. It was a goal he envisioned for himself. I`ve observed that exceptional young talents possess a unique drive. They have specific objectives, believing they are special for a reason. When I speak with Gavin, I can witness the distinct workings of his mind in his eyes. It`s truly unparalleled and challenging to articulate.”
What remains less clear is the long-term impact McKenna`s chosen path, and that of other Canadian junior hockey stars who may follow, will have on the sport in the years ahead.
The Evolving Financial Landscape
The 2021 Supreme Court ruling in NCAA v. Alston enabled student-athletes across all divisions to earn income beyond scholarships. This decision paved the way for Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) opportunities in college sports, freeing athletes to profit from their personal brand while competing in the NCAA.
Just last month, the NIL environment underwent another significant transformation with the resolution of three federal antitrust lawsuits via a $2.8 billion settlement. This agreement permits colleges to directly compensate student-athletes, with an anticipated annual cap beginning at approximately $20.5 million per institution in the 2025-26 academic year.
Brisson emphasized that NIL compensation was not the primary driver behind McKenna`s and his family`s decision. He stated, “While NIL certainly played a role, it wasn`t the main reason for his college choice. The focus was entirely on his next developmental stage. We, along with his family, saw this as an opportunity to further his growth as a player above all else.”
Granato, who played 13 seasons in the NHL, concurred that NIL money factored into McKenna`s choice but was not the decisive element. Given his understanding of the NHL landscape awaiting McKenna post-draft, Granato doubted that NIL was the ultimate determinant.
“Gavin McKenna is poised to earn substantial wealth in a very short span of time, far exceeding his needs. Therefore, I don`t believe the decision was purely financial. Rather, I think it revolved around the respect shown and the comprehensive plan Penn State presented. The financial offer clearly signaled their strong desire, but more importantly, they demonstrated a significant commitment to elevating their program to national prominence.”
Granato suggested that Penn State`s advantages from this commitment extend beyond next season`s on-ice performance. He added, “If Gavin McKenna appears on television and in Stanley Cup playoffs for the next two decades, consistently associated with the Penn State logo through his achievements, the value he brings to the university is immense. In that context, $700,000 or similar figures likely represent a remarkably cost-effective investment.”
A notable example of his skill is his sensational solo goal scored in the WHL, a contender for goal of the year, demonstrating his elite offensive capabilities.
In previous years, McKenna`s choice to join the NCAA would have been far more intricate. The NCAA formerly considered any player who participated in the CHL ineligible, primarily because professional NHL-contracted players sometimes played in its constituent leagues: the Ontario Hockey League, Western Hockey League, and Quebec Maritimes Junior Hockey League. CHL players also received a monthly stipend, capped at $250.
However, in November 2024, the NCAA Division I council enacted a significant change, voting to permit CHL players to be eligible for NCAA Division I hockey starting in 2025. This ruling allows players to participate in the CHL without compromising their NCAA eligibility, provided their compensation does not exceed “actual and necessary expenses” related to their participation.
At the time, Dan Near, Commissioner of the Western Hockey League, issued a statement endorsing the NCAA rule adjustments, viewing them as a means to “alleviate the pressure” on young athletes and their families, who previously faced a difficult choice between junior hockey and NCAA eligibility. Near reiterated, “We stand by our position. Our disappointment that Gavin won`t be playing in our league next season doesn`t alter our fundamental perspective on this matter. We extend our best wishes to Gavin; he was part of an outstanding team in Medicine Hat and contributed significantly to both the community and the league. I hope he achieves tremendous success.”
Near advised against making broad generalizations based solely on McKenna`s specific route to the NHL. He stated, “Gavin McKenna`s early departure from the WHL or the CHL should not be equated with the entirety of ongoing transformations. While it is undoubtedly a significant development, the current landscape is so vast, complex, and rapidly evolving that most would agree it will require considerable time to observe the full implications.”
Nevertheless, McKenna`s choice has solidified what many anticipate could become a new standard for prospect development in hockey: players commencing their careers in the CHL before transitioning to the NCAA just prior to or immediately following their NHL draft selection.
New Pathways and Challenges
Craig Button is convinced that McKenna`s chosen route represents the emerging model for player progression. McKenna`s journey involved 16 games with Medicine Hat in 2022-23, followed by a 61-game season in 2023-24 where he recorded 97 points, and then 56 games last season before his move to Penn State.
“Now, players can strategically assess what is most beneficial for their development at ages 15, 16, or 17. Many will still opt for the CHL due to its high level of play and coaching. However, they no longer have to sacrifice the chance to compete in the NCAA.”
Distinct differences characterize these two developmental avenues. The CHL involves a substantially greater number of games, providing preparation for the demanding NHL schedule. The NCAA, with fewer games, allows more dedicated time for player development and training. While the CHL offers competition against peers at similar developmental stages, the NCAA pits 18-year-olds against players as old as 23. Fundamentally, the CHL involves living with billet families, whereas the NCAA offers the comprehensive experience of college life.
Button maintains an optimistic outlook on this evolving landscape, stating, “I genuinely appreciate the fact that more opportunities are emerging, providing players with diverse approaches to their development.” He does not perceive this shift as a significant detriment to the CHL. Button highlights NHL luminaries such as Patrick Kane and Matthew Tkachuk, who chose Canadian juniors over the NCAA. He also points out that many leading prospects now entering the NCAA will likely have spent considerable time in Canadian junior leagues. McKenna himself played two and a half seasons with Medicine Hat, guiding them to a conference championship and a Memorial Cup appearance, before his move to Penn State.
“While the CHL naturally dislikes losing 19-year-olds to the NCAA, they simultaneously stand to gain players they might not have acquired at ages 16 and 17.”
However, Near disputes the idea that this constitutes an entirely new talent pipeline for NHL prospects. He expressed, “I`m perfectly fine with experimentation. I also have no issue with other leagues, perhaps envious of our success or aspiring to be seen as our equals, suggesting that we should serve as a developmental league for the NCAA, which would then function as a developmental league for the NHL. But that`s not our role,” he firmly added.
The WHL commissioner asserted the CHL`s superior and extensive 50-year track record in player development. He cited the 2025 NHL draft, where 21 of the 32 first-round selections originated from Canadian junior hockey, compared to five from U.S. college programs.
“A player opting for the NCAA before their draft year will be an infrequent occurrence. This situation transcends mere financial considerations; it`s fundamentally about identifying the environment that best fosters a player`s hockey development.”
He highlighted the billet system, explaining, “It provides a supportive environment with parental figures who assist with meals and teach life skills like laundry, fostering independence.” He also referenced the CHL`s rigorous schedule and the high volume of games players experience annually, noting that many former junior players transitioning to the American Hockey League (AHL) have found the CHL provided the optimal preparation for professional demands.
Near clarified that the WHL is not complacent about its reputation. He has initiated a player survey this offseason to gather feedback on what is effective and what requires improvement. “We are not simply asserting our superiority,” he stated. “Instead, we are dedicating significant effort to evaluate how we can enhance the player experience and overall environment.”
This proactive approach includes considering CHL players who might return to junior hockey after initially moving to the NCAA, a potential trend many sources foresee within this evolving landscape. Reasons for such a return could include insufficient ice time, recognizing an unreadiness for older competition, or the reality that not every 18-year-old “stepping onto a college campus, immediately joining the top power play, and earning maximum NIL money” will be readily embraced by older teammates harboring their own NHL ambitions, as one NHL source commented.
Button, likening the option of returning to junior leagues to a “transfer portal,” stated, “NCAA hockey presents significant challenges for many 18- and 19-year-olds.” He elaborated, “Currently, there`s a transfer portal within NCAA athletics. Factors like reduced ice time, not fitting into a team`s depth chart, or not receiving sufficient opportunities might lead players to seek alternatives. So, while a transfer portal exists between schools, a similar `transfer portal` back to the CHL will also become a reality.”
An additional complexity for Canadian athletes moving to the NCAA involves rapidly shifting immigration policies that could affect their student visa status. This has been a topic of open discussion among Big Ten schools like Oregon since the advent of NIL.
Near stated, “While I don`t wish for any negative outcomes, we are structuring our operations to ensure that if a player experiences regrets, we will welcome them back.” He continued, “I believe there`s a chance some players will return to our league. I also think people might gain a deeper appreciation for the comprehensive player development experience we offer. I wish these shifts would happen more quickly, as it`s a period of stress. Nevertheless, we are observing the situation closely and taking action where appropriate.”
Despite the current challenges for Canadian junior hockey, Button does not view the changes to the prospect pipeline as a net negative for the CHL.
“Some might claim everything is deteriorating, but that`s simply not the case. New opportunities are emerging for CHL teams to attract promising younger players. The NCAA is gaining access to more drafted talent, who now consider college hockey a viable path. NHL teams, in turn, have expanded options regarding player signings. I view this as a positive development.”
NHL`s Role in the Shifting Landscape
As if the landscape for hockey prospects hadn`t seen sufficient transformation, the NHL and the NHLPA introduced further shifts through their new collective bargaining agreement (CBA), set to commence in the 2026-27 season.
A significant alteration pertains to 19-year-old players drafted by NHL teams from Canadian junior leagues. The existing NHL-CHL transfer agreement mandates that such players must either secure a spot on an NHL roster or be sent back to their junior club. Presently, CHL players are ineligible to compete in the American Hockey League (AHL) until they reach 20 years of age or have completed four full seasons in the CHL.
Under the new CBA, the NHL intends to renegotiate its agreement with the CHL to abolish this mandatory return rule. A new amendment states, “The NHL will aim to restrict NHL Clubs to loaning no more than one 19-year-old player annually to the AHL, without the prior requirement of offering the player back to his junior club.”
More crucially for the NHL draft, the new CBA specifies that the rights to players drafted at age 18 will be held until “the fourth June 1 following their draft date.” For 19-year-old draftees, their rights will be retained “until the third June 1 following their draft date.”
Button views this as a crucial new developmental window for both teams and players, with ramifications for both junior leagues and the NCAA. He explained, “Teams now retain a player`s rights for four years, whereas previously in the CHL, a player had to be signed within two years of being drafted. In the past, teams faced a signing decision much sooner. Now, if a 20-year-old player isn`t quite ready for professional play, a team can dispatch him to the NCAA for an additional year of development while still holding his rights.”
This new practice could emerge as one of the most impactful developments in the era of expanded NCAA eligibility: the potential for NHL teams to utilize the NCAA as a preparatory league for former Canadian junior players before their transition to professional hockey.
“Due to this change, college hockey will likely attract more high-profile players. NHL teams will endorse players attending college hockey for this reason. Many successful junior hockey players seeking the next stage of their development, but not yet NHL-ready, will find college hockey an appealing option, and so will many NHL teams.”
This trend is already underway. In last month`s draft, the Calgary Flames selected center Cole Reschny from the WHL Victoria Royals at pick 18; Reschny is committed to North Dakota for next season. (His Royals teammate, Keaton Verhoeff, a promising 17-year-old defenseman, will also join him at North Dakota, a rare occurrence for his age.) Similarly, the New York Rangers drafted winger Malcolm Spence from the OHL Erie Otters at pick 43, and he will play for the University of Michigan next season.
“While CHL and USHL teams possess resources and invest heavily in development, the environment at a major NCAA program is distinct. It will be fascinating to observe 18-year-olds who aren`t NHL-ready choosing not to return to junior, especially when at 19, the previous options were essentially NHL or junior. Now, the NCAA provides an intermediate developmental stage. This path demands a commitment to being a student-athlete, but I believe the NHL also gains from this evolution.”
McKenna`s Trajectory and Impact
McKenna is widely expected to transition directly to the NHL following next summer`s draft, a common trajectory for top overall selections for decades. His path will include a season facing older, larger opponents, mirroring the experiences of Macklin Celebrini with Boston University and Auston Matthews with Zurich SC in the Swiss league before their respective NHL debuts.
“Players with confidence who are prepared for the next challenge won`t be deterred. They prioritize improvement over potential draft position. If playing against older, bigger, and stronger players in a higher-caliber league will make them better, they will pursue it. That defines their mindset.”
McKenna would be only the fourth winger in the last 15 drafts to be chosen first overall, following Nail Yakupov (Edmonton Oilers, 2012), Alexis Lafreniere (New York Rangers, 2020), and Juraj Slafkovsky (Montreal Canadiens, 2022). Notably, none of these predecessors garnered the pre-draft hype McKenna has attracted, a level of excitement typically reserved for generational centers like Connor McDavid or Auston Matthews.
Button does not equate McKenna`s talent with McDavid`s, nor does he view him as the prolific goal-scorer Matthews has become. On the spectrum of recent first overall NHL picks, Button places McKenna between Macklin Celebrini (San Jose, 2024) and Connor Bedard (Chicago, 2023).
However, Button suggests that if McKenna fulfills his potential, his NHL comparables are two former Hart Trophy recipients: Patrick Kane and Nikita Kucherov. While both are adept goal-scorers (Kane ranks sixth with 492, Kucherov 22nd with 357 among active players), it`s their exceptional playmaking from the wing that draws Button`s comparison to McKenna, who grew up in Whitehorse, Yukon, as a fan of Kane and the Blackhawks.
“He possesses the ability to control and dominate games. I believe we share similar playing styles: intelligent hockey players who can dictate the pace, slowing it down or accelerating it as needed.”
Gadowsky highlighted McKenna`s capacity to decelerate play and operate at his own speed as a sign of an elite player with a unique hockey mind. Recalling his own youth watching Wayne Gretzky, Gadowsky refrained from direct comparisons but noted that the inherent way both players process the game is an untrainable quality.
“Neither I nor anyone on our staff processes the game quite like Gavin. He is a truly exceptional athlete. I will never attempt to instruct him on his unique creative thought process; that`s entirely his own, and it will be incredibly exciting to observe.”
For Gadowsky, the sole coach Penn State`s hockey program has known since joining the Big Ten, the prospect of Nittany Lions fans watching McKenna play remains somewhat surreal. The program`s success has been a gradual process, but securing McKenna`s commitment marks a monumental advancement for both the team and college hockey as a whole.
“Numerous passionate Penn State supporters are incredibly eager to watch him play and witness his future achievements. They are going to adore him. We are absolutely delighted that a player of his caliber will be associated with Penn State.”
Gareth Tenby