Drafting a star like Leon Draisaitl instead of Auston Matthews won`t guarantee a fantasy league victory. Similarly, picking Zach Werenski over Rasmus Dahlin or Sergei Bobrovsky instead of Igor Shesterkin won`t be the deciding factor.
Success in fantasy hockey leagues is often determined by marginal gains. While early rounds secure top talent, the true distinction between a mediocre season and a championship lies in leveraging late-round draft picks, along with effective waiver wire management and trades throughout the season.
ESPN Fantasy Hockey`s Average Draft Position (ADP) tracks up to 230 players in a 10-team league. Players with an ADP below 200 are generally drafted, while those in the 200-210 range are toss-ups. Picks between 210 and 220 are selected in about one in four drafts, and beyond 220, players are rarely chosen.
This raises the question: which players in the 200+ ADP range are worth considering for those crucial last picks in rounds 19-23, when you`re filling out your roster?
In these late rounds, context often outweighs raw star power. Value is found in specifics: a role on the second power-play unit, changes in the team`s depth chart, being a primary replacement for an injured star, or joining a significantly improved team. Beyond pure talent, the focus shifts to identifying players with a clear route to substantial ice time and offensive contributions.
These are the individuals who can provide a competitive edge. While you`ll develop your own preferences, here are 12 players with an ADP beyond 200 that I`m targeting, along with the specific reasons justifying the risk.
Targeting Late-Round Forwards
- Quinton Byfield, C, Los Angeles Kings (ADP 214.7): With Anze Kopitar`s career winding down, Byfield is positioned as his successor. He has displayed sufficient potential for a significant role expansion this season, potentially contending for the Kings` leading forward in fantasy points.
- Matty Beniers, C, Seattle Kraken (ADP 228.3): Despite four seasons yielding moderate results, 22-year-old Beniers is at a pivotal point. This season, he needs to establish himself as a legitimate No. 1 center, playing around 20 minutes per game alongside skilled wingers. This year will likely determine if he breaks out as a top-tier player or settles into a No. 2 role.
- Cole Perfetti, LW, Winnipeg Jets (ADP 224.6): Following Nikolaj Ehlers` departure, Perfetti is set to absorb increased top-six minutes and power-play opportunities. Having already seen significant ice time last season, his role is expected to expand further. Consistent power-play exposure suggests a production floor of at least 60 points.
- Jeff Skinner, LW, San Jose Sharks (ADP 229.9): While not in his prime, Skinner`s veteran offense is valuable to the rebuilding Sharks. His move to San Jose indicates a desire for immediate scoring. Expect increased ice time compared to his tenure in Edmonton, leveraging his consistent shot volume.
- Valeri Nichushkin, RW, Colorado Avalanche (ADP 208.8): With Mikko Rantanen`s absence, the Avalanche will rely heavily on Nichushkin to play alongside Nathan MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog. When performing optimally, he offers significant fantasy upside well beyond pick 200.
- Jimmy Snuggerud, RW, St. Louis Blues (ADP 229.6): The St. Louis Blues exude potential for a breakthrough season, especially after their strong finish under coach Jim Montgomery. Snuggerud, who appeared NHL-ready in his brief games last season, is a strong candidate for a top-six forward role.
Late-Round Defensemen Opportunities
- Jamie Drysdale, D, Philadelphia Flyers (ADP 229.3): Drysdale has a clear opportunity to lead the Flyers` top power-play unit, a crucial factor for fantasy production. While injury concerns persist, his talent and role align for significant upside.
- Cam Fowler, D, St. Louis Blues (ADP 228.6): Fowler also has a direct path to the first power-play unit on a Blues team expected to perform well. Should he fully assume quarterback responsibilities from Justin Faulk, he could achieve a career-best of 40 assists.
- Alexander Romanov, D, New York Islanders (ADP 219.3): While not a high-scoring defenseman, Romanov excels as a multi-category asset, consistently accumulating hits and blocks while maintaining durability. Despite only 20 points, his 2.1 fantasy points per game last season ranked 17th among defensemen, matching elite players like Adam Fox and Evan Bouchard, highlighting the value of peripheral stats.
Late-Round Goaltender Targets
- John Gibson, G, Detroit Red Wings (ADP 220.5): Having departed Anaheim, Gibson now has the opportunity to stabilize his performance with a Detroit Red Wings team aiming for the playoffs. Even an average performance from him in Detroit could make him a valuable sleeper pick for a bench goalie.
- Karel Vejmelka, G, Utah Mammoth (ADP 221.4): The Utah Mammoth are an improving team, and Vejmelka faces no significant competition for the starting goaltender role. High game volume is critical in fantasy goaltending, and he is set to receive it.
- Jeremy Swayman, G, Boston Bruins (ADP 203.8): Swayman managed a full-time starter role last season, demonstrating his ability to handle a substantial workload despite the Bruins` challenges. While Boston`s team stability remains uncertain, Swayman possesses the potential to exceed his late-round ADP and provide reliable starter-tier fantasy numbers.
Late-round selections inherently carry risk, as not every pick beyond 200 will succeed. However, strategic value lies in targeting players with specific catalysts for increased production, such as power-play exposure, a move to a new team, or being next in line for expanded opportunities. These are not mere lottery tickets, but calculated gambles with identifiable upside.
Duncan Priestley