There`s an undeniable thrill in correctly predicting a long shot. It`s incredibly satisfying when a specific conviction or intuition, despite seeming unlikely to most, materializes exactly as envisioned. And, of course, the financial reward isn`t bad either.
What exactly constitutes a “long shot”? In some cases, futures bets on individual players can offer odds as high as 500-1, translating to a substantial $500 return on just a $1 wager.
Frequently, these ambitious long shots fall agonizingly short, ultimately losing out to more favored “chalk” bets. Last season`s bids for William Nylander (Rocket Richard Trophy) and Zach Werenski (Norris Trophy) serve as prime examples. Both were 100-1 long shots before the 2024-25 season, finishing second to Leon Draisaitl and Cale Makar, respectively.
Yet, every now and then, even the most improbable long shots defy expectations. The Washington Capitals, for instance, were 100-1 outsiders to win the Presidents` Trophy before last season. However, a perfect storm of exceptional coaching, emerging talent, and a vintage performance from Alex Ovechkin propelled them to the top of the overall standings by season`s end.
As we delve into potential long-shot picks, it`s crucial to understand that the aim of this analysis isn`t to specifically endorse these exact wagers. Rather, the goal is to illustrate the analytical process – a form of “mental gymnastics” – that helps uncover valuable long-shot opportunities before the 2025-26 NHL season begins. This guide is more of a strategic framework for identifying value, not a direct betting recommendation.
Stanley Cup winner 2025-26
St. Louis Blues
Odds: 50-1
The St. Louis Blues have defied expectations as a long shot before, famously transforming from a mid-season basement dweller to hoisting the Stanley Cup in 2019. They possess the foundational elements for playoff success: astute coaching, dependable clutch goaltending, forward depth, and a formidable defensive corps. This combination could perfectly coalesce in the postseason, reminiscent of recent runs by teams like the Florida Panthers.
While they might not have every piece currently in place, a cohesive roster could emerge: envision Robert Thomas ascending to superstar status, Jimmy Snuggerud developing into an elite rookie scorer, and the Blues adding a transformative defenseman. When selecting a Stanley Cup long shot, look for a conceivable pathway where all essential playoff components could align.
To make the playoffs
San Jose Sharks
Odds: 15-1
While the Sharks` rebuild is progressing, they aren`t yet considered playoff contenders. However, when evaluating playoff qualification long shots, they meet several key criteria.
Firstly, is there an opening in the standings? In the Western Conference, only the Vegas Golden Knights (-1200), Edmonton Oilers (-1200), Colorado Avalanche (-1000), and Dallas Stars (-900) have exceptionally short odds for making the playoffs. All other teams are priced at -350 or longer, suggesting some potential flexibility for an underdog to sneak in.
Sustained regular-season success, which the Sharks currently lack, is essential for a playoff push.
Nevertheless, with a wealth of superstar-caliber prospects, there`s a plausible scenario where this team accelerates its development. Players like Macklin Celebrini, Will Smith, William Eklund, Michael Misa, Sam Dickinson, and Yaroslav Askarov all possess significant breakout potential. Should veteran “reclamation projects” such as Jeff Skinner, John Klingberg, and Philipp Kurashev also perform above expectations… it just might be possible.
Hart Trophy winner
Nick Suzuki
Odds: 500-1
Winning the Hart Trophy requires a player to be a definitive team leader, guide their club to significant success, and establish themselves as the most dominant player in their position. These prerequisites make Suzuki an exceptionally difficult long shot. Even Connor Hellebuyck, who stunned many last season, was merely 150-1.
However, the next wave of NHL talent is destined to make its mark. While it`s tough to envision any 500-1 long shot surpassing favorites like Connor McDavid (+200), Nathan MacKinnon (+475), or Nikita Kucherov (+650), here`s a speculative argument for Suzuki.
Consider a scenario where the Montreal Canadiens orchestrate an improbable run to a division title, and Suzuki`s offensive numbers dramatically surge, fueled by a potent power play alongside talents such as Ivan Demidov, Cole Caufield, and Juraj Slafkovsky, propelling him into contention for the Art Ross Trophy. In fact, these are precisely the `if` factors necessary for him to even enter the conversation. When eyeing a Hart Trophy long shot, one must think beyond ambitious – aim for the truly extraordinary.
Rocket Richard Trophy winner
Dylan Guenther
Odds: 400-1
In an era dominated by prolific scorers like Alex Ovechkin and Auston Matthews, the NHL`s goal-scoring title seldom goes to an unexpected candidate. When seeking Rocket Richard Trophy long shots, the critical factors are demonstrated skill and potential for significant development.
Guenther embodies this profile. Last season, he participated in only 70 games, averaging 17 minutes of ice time. The Utah Mammoth are poised to make substantial progress, with Guenther positioned as a primary offensive driver. Should his role expand to a full 82-game season with approximately 20 minutes per game, maintaining his current shooting rate would project him to 281 shots on goal. A modest increase in his shooting percentage from 13.2% to a more elite 16% – a plausible improvement for a top-tier winger – would place him at 45 goals. With a bit of favorable luck, he could indeed become a legitimate Rocket Richard contender.
Similar rationales could be applied to other long-shot prospects, but the essential strategy is to identify players who have already shown promise and are set for an unobstructed path to maximize their potential.
Vezina Trophy winner
John Gibson
Odds: 250-1
For Vezina Trophy futures, the fundamental requirement is clear: consistent playing time. A goaltender generally needs to start 50 or more games to even be considered. This factor alone eliminates many potential long shots, unless one is specifically wagering on an injury to a current starter.
However, John Gibson presents a viable pathway. The Detroit Red Wings are anticipated to be a winning team, and the “Yzerplan” strategy seems poised to yield significant results. If Gibson remains healthy and secures a full-time starting role, both the volume of games and the team`s win potential would be met.
The final crucial element is performance. Gibson still possesses the elite talent showcased during his Vezina-caliber seasons in 2015-16 and 2018-19 with the Anaheim Ducks. Combining this underlying skill with a touch of long-shot fortune, he could emerge as a very credible dark horse candidate – precisely the kind of overlooked potential to seek when reviewing futures odds.
Norris Trophy winner
MacKenzie Weegar
Odds: 300-1
To be frank, any Norris Trophy prediction that isn`t Cale Makar essentially hinges on Makar missing a substantial portion of the upcoming season.
Offensive output continues to be the primary metric for this award. Weegar is only one season removed from an impressive 20-goal, 52-point campaign. Should the Calgary Flames trade Rasmus Andersson, this could further amplify Weegar`s offensive opportunities from the defensive position.
Beyond his offensive contributions, Weegar also excels in defensive aspects often undervalued for the Norris, such as delivering impactful checks, blocking shots, and consistently driving play in his team`s favor.
Even if Makar performs at his customary elite level, a dark horse defenseman can still enter the discussion by coupling robust defensive play with eye-catching offensive statistics. Weegar has previously demonstrated his capability in both areas.
Most rookie points
Arseny Gritsyuk
Odds: 40-1
Despite being listed with relatively low odds among the rookie points props, Gritsyuk possesses a plausible route to success. His skill set is undeniable, having generated significant offense in the KHL. The Devils are in need of boosted scoring on their wings to complement their two star centers. While it`s certainly a long shot for him to both secure consistent playing time and accumulate enough points to lead all rookies, the opportunity exists for him to capitalize on it.
When assessing rookie long shots, the inherent talent is typically present; the challenge lies in identifying those with a clear pathway to a prominent role within their team`s depth chart.
Most shots on goal
Owen Tippett
Odds: 400-1
Consider this intriguing statistic: among players who have appeared in at least 75 games over the past two seasons, Tippett ranks eighth in shots per minute – positioned directly behind Alex Ovechkin and slightly ahead of Tage Thompson.
High shot volume is fundamentally driven by a player`s aggressive mindset and a coach`s willingness to empower them to shoot frequently. The annual leaders in this category are typically familiar names. For a new player to break into this elite group, a significant shift is usually required. In Tippett`s case, this transformation could stem from new coach Rick Tocchet elevating his ice time from 16 minutes per game closer to 20. This potential increase makes him a compelling long-shot wager, as his natural shooting ability is already established.
With an expanded role and more chances to unleash his shot, Tippett could transition from a dark horse to a genuine contender.
Duncan Priestley