By Greg Wyshynski
Many fans wish to see Connor McDavid finally lift the Stanley Cup.
He has accumulated numerous individual awards throughout his career – five scoring titles, three Hart Trophies as MVP, and four NHLPA Outstanding Player awards. Supporters yearn to see these personal accolades culminate in the ultimate team prize, a Stanley Cup ring, rewarding his decade-long effort to guide the Edmonton Oilers to their first championship since 1990. The city and its fans are eager for another celebration, with McDavid at the center.
His goal is to erase the painful memory of last season`s Game 7 loss, where he appeared utterly dejected, his energy seemingly drained by a series so emotionally taxing that he was still named playoff MVP despite the defeat.
Ending the common, facile criticism that he “hasn`t won the Cup” is a significant motivation, mirroring how players like Alex Ovechkin and Nathan MacKinnon eventually silenced similar doubts. The anticipation is high for his potentially cathartic moment when he finally hoists the trophy. This highly accomplished player is due for his defining team achievement.
However, personal desires often clash with reality, and the Florida Panthers stand in the way. They prevented his team from winning the Cup last season and are positioned to do so again in this Final rematch, even though many oddsmakers and analysts predict an Oilers victory centered around McDavid.
Here are five reasons the Panthers are likely headed for a repeat:
Florida`s Improvement Since Last Season
While acknowledging the Edmonton Oilers have clearly improved since their last campaign, their roster exhibits greater depth and cohesion compared to the team that won the Western Conference in 2024. They are scoring more (4.06 goals per game) and their 5-on-5 defense is significantly tighter, allowing only 1.89 goals per 60 minutes, a notable reduction from 2.55 in the prior postseason.
A highlight of Edmonton`s defensive performance has been their ability to shut down opponents late in games, as seen in their effective shot suppression during the final three victories against the Dallas Stars. They finished the third period last postseason with a minus-6 goal differential but boast a plus-11 through 16 games this season. Their penalty kill is the only area showing decline, conceding 16 goals in 16 games versus four in 25 last year. Mattias Ekholm`s potential return is expected to bolster this unit.
But the Panthers have also elevated their game.
Significantly better, in fact, which presents a formidable challenge.
Florida currently holds a plus-27 goal differential over 17 games, a major leap from their plus-11 last season. They are scoring more (3.88) and conceding fewer goals (2.29). Their 5-on-5 goal rate has surged from 2.39 per 60 minutes last season to 3.53 this season. The power play has improved year-over-year (relevant if Edmonton`s PK struggles), while the penalty kill remains consistent.
Key mid-season roster enhancements also contributed, notably the additions of Seth Jones to the second defensive pairing and Brad Marchand to the third forward line.
Last season, Niko Mikkola skated with Brandon Montour, a capable puck-moving defenseman who capitalized on his Florida performance with a free-agent deal in Seattle. That pairing saw Florida capture 49% of shot attempts and averaged 1.84 goals for and 2.03 goals against per 60 minutes. The pairing of Mikkola and Jones represents a significant upgrade: 56% shot attempts, 4.14 goals for, and 1.69 goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Their expected goals against rate of 1.48 per 60 minutes is much lower than Montour and Mikkola`s 2.37 from the previous postseason.
This improvement isn`t solely due to Jones`s presence in the top four. Mikkola himself has developed into a key player, demonstrating improved defense and surprising offensive quickness for a large defender known as “The Condor.”
Brad Marchand commented, “Meeks has been a beast. He`s everywhere throughout the playoffs. I don`t think he gets enough credit. He`s incredibly difficult to play against. When you`re on the ice with him, and you realize that he`s not flashy, but he closes so quick, he`s always on top of guys and he`s physical.”
Marchand`s arrival has also made the Panthers more formidable than last season, impacting more than just on-ice chatter. Their Cup-winning third line typically featured center Anton Lundell and winger Eetu Luostarinen alongside various other wingers. Integrating Marchand, acquired from Boston at the trade deadline, significantly strengthened this line and the team overall.
This line of Marchand, Lundell, and Luostarinen now controls 53% of shot attempts at 5-on-5. They average an impressive 4.2 goals scored and only 0.82 goals against per 60 minutes. Marchand has contributed 14 points in 17 games, Luostarinen 13, and Lundell five goals and seven assists, providing exceptional center depth as a “Baby Barkov” type player.
Solidifying the third line with Marchand allows the Panthers to maintain stability in their top two lines. One potent pairing is Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart, while the other features Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk. They rotate clutch playoff scorer Carter Verhaeghe and analytics favorite Evan Rodrigues on the wings alongside these core duos, with both configurations proving successful for Florida.
More importantly, perhaps driving the on-ice performance, the Panthers exhibit the composure and self-belief of a reigning champion, a confidence earned only by previously lifting the Stanley Cup.
Goaltending Matchup: Bobrovsky vs. Skinner
Both starting goaltenders have followed remarkably similar postseason paths: initially showing inconsistent or average performance before hitting a dominant stride that began midway through the second round and carried them into the Stanley Cup Final.
Labeling Skinner`s early playoff form as “middling” might be generous; he was benched in the first round and only returned after Calvin Pickard was injured against the Vegas Golden Knights. However, from Game 4 against Vegas onwards, he has been exceptional: a 6-1 record with a .944 save percentage, a 1.41 goals-against average, and three shutouts.
Bobrovsky also had an indifferent start until a shutout performance in Game 4 against the Maple Leafs. Following that game, he posted a 7-2 record with a .944 save percentage, a 1.34 goals-against average, and two shutouts.
Last season`s Stanley Cup Final was turbulent for the Florida netminder, yet he delivered a decisive 23-save performance in Game 7 at home to secure the championship. This cemented the “Playoff Bob” reputation, a narrative the Oilers will undoubtedly encounter again this season.
According to Stathletes` analysis, both goalies were performing near replacement level over the entire playoffs. However, in their recent five games, Bobrovsky (2.35 goals saved above expected) holds a slight analytical edge over Skinner (1.89).
Skinner is currently playing competently enough that he`s unlikely to be the sole reason Edmonton loses the series, which is the minimum required of him and Pickard. In contrast, Bobrovsky, if he sustains his “Playoff Bob” form, possesses the capability to single-handedly *win* the series for Florida. That potential difference in impact is crucial.
Florida`s Road Prowess
The key difference from last season is Edmonton holding home-ice advantage. Paradoxically, this might benefit the Panthers.
Florida boasts an 8-2 road record, tied for the sixth-best winning percentage in NHL postseason history (for teams with at least eight road games). Their average of 4.80 goals per game on the road could be the highest in Stanley Cup history for teams meeting that minimum. Their impressive plus-27 goal differential this postseason has entirely originated from their road performance, scoring 48 goals while allowing only 21. At home, their goal differential is even (18 goals for and 18 against).
Defenseman Gustav Forsling described their attitude: “It`s us against the world. That`s the kind of feeling.”
Their road success stems from two primary factors. Firstly, Florida is most effective when simplifying their offensive approach, transforming into a powerful, direct force.
Carter Verhaeghe explained, “Our mindset is simply to play as basic as possible. Get the puck deep, pressure their defense, and forecheck hard, which is our core strength.”
Secondly, the Panthers relish silencing opposing crowds and leaving the home fans disappointed.
Verhaeghe added, “It`s enjoyable when you`re on the road and the arena goes quiet. It makes you feel like you`re executing your plan.”
The Impact of Aleksander Barkov
Stars like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are known for taking over periods, games, or even entire series, as demonstrated by McDavid`s nine points in five games against Dallas.
Florida also possesses such a player in Aleksander Barkov. While not receiving the same level of widespread acclaim as the Oilers` stars, Auston Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon, or Sidney Crosby, Barkov`s career points-per-game rate between 2017 and 2025 (1.11) ranks 12th among all skaters, positioned between Crosby and Cale Makar. He`s less outwardly expressive than some, leading coach Paul Maurice to joke he “isn`t starting a podcast after he retires.”
Unlike the aforementioned players who are primarily Hart Trophy contenders (awarded to the league MVP), Barkov is a Selke Trophy specialist, recently winning his third award as the NHL`s best defensive forward. Historically, winning both is rare; only Sergei Fedorov and Bobby Clarke have done so since the Selke was introduced in 1977-78. Barkov`s highest MVP finish was sixth in 2020-21.
Nevertheless, Barkov is equally capable of influencing games and series as any other superstar, often by dominating in the defensive zone first. Against Edmonton last postseason, the Panthers outscored the Oilers 5-2 when Barkov was on the ice in their seven-game series, controlling the majority of shot attempts and scoring chances.
His exceptional puck control and size allow him to generate scoring opportunities seemingly out of thin air.
Consider his decisive goal in the series-clinching game against Carolina:
Evan Rodrigues remarked after that Game 5 win that the goal “speaks to who [Barkov] is as a person.”
Rodrigues elaborated, “He`s incredibly balanced. He doesn`t get overly excited or discouraged. When games become intense and highly emotional, he consistently sticks to his game and executes the correct plays repeatedly.”
This leads to perhaps the most crucial point supporting this prediction.
Adapting to the Opponent`s Game
While potentially an exaggeration (though that`s never deterred me), it seems the Panthers are fundamentally constructed to counteract the Oilers` strengths.
They possess the offensive capability to match Edmonton, coupled with one of the NHL`s best defensive games. They feature impactful star power alongside effective role players. They remain composed in hostile road environments. They are well-coached and play with notable physicality, confidence, and a willingness to antagonize. They can both initiate and absorb physical play.
Crucially, they share a characteristic common among great NHL champions: the readiness to win either by dictating their preferred style or by successfully adapting to whatever game the opponent attempts to impose.
Recall the Western Conference Final against the Dallas Stars. The Stars seemed to lose their composure whenever the Oilers scored first. They were visibly frustrated, managing only four shots on Skinner in the third period of must-win games, unable to execute their usual style.
The Panthers, in contrast, are not easily rattled. They maintain their confidence and resolve even when circumstances are unfavorable. They are skilled at maximizing the opportunities they create and remain methodical and composed where other teams might become rushed or panicked.
Against the defensively solid Carolina Hurricanes in the Eastern Conference Final, the Panthers patiently awaited their openings and struck decisively, drastically altering the game`s momentum. In each of their victories over Carolina, Florida scored multiple goals in quick succession (within four minutes). Florida excels at seizing momentum like a team spotting “blood in the water.” In Game 3, they scored five goals in 9:08; in Game 5, three goals in 4:36.
Barkov stated, “We enter each game knowing exactly what we need to achieve. Confidence is high, and everyone is currently enjoying the process.”
Prediction: Panthers in Six Games
General Manager Bill Zito and his team have assembled a championship squad whose core players possess the crucial postseason experience and drive that other teams often scramble to add at the trade deadline. The Panthers don`t lack veteran presence or championship pedigree; most of their key players have already won the Cup. Playoff resilience and self-assurance are fundamental to their team identity.
Their determined, often relentless style has drawn criticism but has also propelled them to three consecutive appearances in the Stanley Cup Final.
Considering Florida`s current form and their strategic advantages in this specific matchup, they are likely headed towards winning their second consecutive Stanley Cup.
Should this prediction prove incorrect, it means Connor McDavid will achieve his championship moment, which, in itself, would be a compelling outcome.
Gareth Tenby 
Duncan Priestley