The 2025 offseason is set to feature a limited number of high-caliber free agents, coinciding with a significant rise in the salary cap. This combination suggests that, as Brian Burke famously put it, “the biggest mistakes get made on July 1” might ring truer than ever this year.
Currently, the free agent attracting the most attention is Mitch Marner. There`s a noticeable drop-off in talent behind him, with players like Matt Duchene, Sam Bennett, John Tavares, Brock Boeser, and Aaron Ekblad making up the next tier. This stands in stark contrast to July 1, 2026, which could potentially see stars like Connor McDavid, Kirill Kaprizov, Jack Eichel, Artemi Panarin, Kyle Connor, and John Carlson become available. While some or all may extend with their current teams, the potential pool of players a year from now should give general managers pause before committing to expensive, potentially inefficient contracts in 2025.
The limited supply of genuinely impactful players in 2025 makes contract overpayments highly likely. To successfully compete for the Stanley Cup, teams require players who exceed the value of their contracts and must avoid inefficient deals at all costs. While tax-free states offer an advantage, many top players provide value far exceeding the tax differential relative to their contract value.
For example, Sam Reinhart would likely have earned around $10 million annually on the open market but chose to stay with the Florida Panthers for $8.625 million. According to my assessment, Reinhart`s value is closer to $12.6 million, meaning Florida gains an extra $2.6 million in value beyond any tax benefit. Similar scenarios apply to players such as Brandon Hagel, Nikita Kucherov, Thomas Harley, and Shea Theodore.
Even in states with income tax, elite players like Cale Makar, Adam Fox, Seth Jarvis, and Nico Hischier are outperforming their contracts. Edmonton provides clear illustrations, with Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard, and Zach Hyman delivering substantial value relative to their salaries. Leon Draisaitl`s upcoming large contract is still projected to be efficient, and for Evan Bouchard, any contract below an AAV of $9.5 million would be considered highly efficient.
Reports suggest Mitch Marner is seeking approximately $14 million per year, whereas a truly efficient contract for a player of his type would likely be closer to $12 million. Sam Bennett, another player represented by the same agent, is rumored to be targeting around $9 million annually. This would involve paying a player with a career-high of 51 points at a rate typically reserved for elite second-line centers, despite his production being more aligned with a low-end second-liner or high-end third-liner. While there are valid points regarding Marner`s regular-season contributions and Bennett`s playoff impact, a team aspiring to contend cannot afford to pay these players roughly 10% more than their actual on-ice value.
Considering Toronto`s current salary cap constraints, extending Marner seems unlikely to facilitate long-term success, as it would significantly hinder efforts to build a balanced roster. If Marner is genuinely focused on playing for and winning with a contending team, contract efficiency is paramount. If we use the efficiency level of Leon Draisaitl`s impending contract as a benchmark, which Marner`s camp is reportedly doing, anything over $12 million would severely limit the team`s ability to compete – assuming Marner could match Draisaitl`s playoff performance, which he hasn`t yet demonstrated. For his contract to be genuinely valuable, comparable to players like Reinhart, Kucherov, or Kaprizov, Marner would likely need to sign for roughly $10 million annually.
It has become increasingly evident that Toronto requires a significant roster overhaul. Despite multiple potential trades being reportedly blocked in recent years, the team is now facing the prospect of losing a superstar-level player without receiving assets in return. Nevertheless, Toronto is in no position to sign Marner to an inefficient contract, especially given playoff performance concerns. Here`s a potential alternative approach.
With the contracts of Marner and John Tavares expiring, the Maple Leafs will have considerable financial flexibility. They cannot replace Marner`s total value with a single player, but they can strategically redistribute resources across the lineup.
John Tavares is expected to re-sign in Toronto for a rumored AAV around $5 million, which is an efficient deal for a middle-six center who scored 38 goals last season. Instead of a short-term “bridge” deal, the Leafs should pursue a long-term contract for restricted free agent Matthew Knies, potentially around $8.5 million annually. Combined, these two contracts would be less expensive than Marner`s projected salary, and their combined value would likely outweigh Marner`s value alone.
Toronto should also anticipate Easton Cowan contributing in a middle-six role on his entry-level contract next season. It appears almost necessary for Toronto GM Brad Treliving to trade two players from the group including David Kampf, Calle Jarnkrok, Max Domi, and Nick Robertson. The resulting cap space could be utilized to sign free agents like Matt Duchene, Brad Marchand, or Pius Suter, who would offer significantly more value in elevated roles.
These potential roster adjustments would allow Toronto to ice three effective lines. The Florida Panthers` third line was a key factor in eliminating the Leafs, which was possible because the efficient contracts of Florida`s top players enabled a more balanced lineup approach.
Speaking of the Panthers, there are reports linking the Leafs to Sam Bennett. While understandable, it`s crucial to remember Bennett`s performance before joining Florida. In his previous role as Flames GM, Treliving traded Bennett for minimal assets because he struggled to find his game. Bennett is a perfect fit in Florida, though much of his impact comes from activities beyond scoring. If these actions were penalized more often, his value would diminish.
Consider that Tavares scored 38 goals and 74 points last season and is likely signing for around $5 million. Bennett achieved a career-high of 51 points this season. While Bennett is younger, signing him to a contract worth 1.5 times Tavares` salary that runs until Bennett is Tavares` age – having produced 0.68 points per game in Florida and 0.48 over his career – would be disastrous.
Florida is wise not to want to pay over $7 million annually for Bennett, a figure already slightly inflated. Given Florida`s recent success, the Maple Leafs would benefit from following their example. A $7.5 million AAV for Bennett is inefficient but might be manageable if the Leafs are confident his physical play won`t draw more attention in Toronto`s intense media market. Should Bennett`s camp demand more, the Leafs would be better off exploring other options. Targeting free agents like Pius Suter or Matt Duchene – and perhaps orchestrating a trade for someone like Mason Marchment from Dallas as a theoretical example – presents a more balanced approach.
Regardless of the specific players added or traded, the Maple Leafs urgently need to improve their forward depth and avoid signing inefficient contracts. They currently have too many, and shedding a couple would be beneficial. The best teams don`t contend solely on the backs of one or two players; this holds true even for the Oilers, despite having McDavid and Draisaitl.
Instead, consistently successful teams compete year after year because their top players significantly outperform their contracts, and their depth contributes quality minutes due to management acquiring players that create roster balance. Current examples include Florida`s effective third line and Edmonton`s depth players like Corey Perry, Jake Walman, and Connor Brown. Dallas`s ability to acquire a superstar like Mikko Rantanen was facilitated by the efficient contracts held by players such as Roope Hintz, Thomas Harley, and Matt Duchene.
Toronto needs to adopt a ruthless mindset, similar to how the Tampa Bay Lightning operated during their consecutive Stanley Cup wins or the Vegas Golden Knights have throughout their existence.
If a player is unwilling to sign a contract that aligns with the team`s needs for sustained success, then they should not remain a Maple Leaf. Granting significant trade protection to anyone outside the top six forwards or top four defensemen must become a relic of the past. Limited no-trade clauses for third-line players are acceptable, but providing any level of trade protection to easily replaceable players like bottom-pair defenders or players such as David Kampf, Calle Jarnkrok, and Ryan Reaves must cease. They cannot handicap their ability to make necessary roster moves by protecting players who are readily available every summer.
For the Leafs to achieve victory, they must maintain a laser focus on contract efficiency. This will likely mean sacrificing some individual pure talent in the short term to build the kind of balanced, long-term successful structure that has proven effective for other leading organizations.
Duncan Priestley 
Gareth Tenby