U.S. Still Watching Allies for Alignment of Interests Even Amid Defense Pullback, Analyst Says

As the United States scales back its military presence in Asia, regional allies are increasingly expected to shoulder more responsibility for their own defense. However, according to Derek Grossman, a political science professor at the University of Southern California, Washington will continue to observe these nations to ensure their actions align with U.S. strategic interests.

Grossman explained that the current approach prioritizes a "less of the U.S. is more" philosophy, provided that countries stepping up in the absence of American involvement are acting in ways consistent with U.S. objectives.

These observations come in the wake of President Donald Trump's repeated calls to significantly decrease joint military exercises with South Korea. Trump cited the expenses associated with these drills, South Korea's reluctance to support U.S. military operations against Iran, and his personal rapport with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as reasons. Furthermore, the U.S. military recently moved to cancel joint marine drills with South Korea scheduled for the following month, citing operational constraints due to the ongoing conflict in Iran.

The United States appears willing to embrace increased regional cooperation that does not involve direct American participation, as long as such partnerships serve U.S. interests. Grossman elaborated that if countries like Australia, the Philippines, and Japan form their own security alliances without the U.S., it is acceptable because of the trust Washington places in these nations. The concern arises, he noted, when countries like Japan begin to engage in security discussions with rivals such as China and Russia.

Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, suggests that allies will likely respond by boosting their military expenditures, intensifying investments in their own defense capabilities, and forging new alliances with neighboring countries. She believes that over time, regional partnerships not involving the United States could offer U.S. allies a viable alternative strategy, or "Plan B."

Grossman highlighted that the current administration's primary focus remains the defense of Taiwan, even as other areas in Asia are systematically deprioritized. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio previously affirmed Washington's commitment to Taiwan's security, stating that no one is considering abandoning the island, and warned Beijing against any destabilizing actions concerning Taiwan.

Despite these assurances, Grossman questions the efficacy of such a stance, posing the critical question of how Taiwan can be defended when the U.S. is engaged in a conflict in Iran and expending significant resources there. He suggests that the United States has yet to provide a satisfactory answer to this crucial dilemma.